Governor Ademola Adeleke has made history in Osun by securing a second term in office, becoming only the third elected governor in the state to win re-election since the return to democratic rule in 1999.
Adeleke, who contested Saturday’s governorship election on the platform of the Accord Party after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), defeated his closest challenger, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji.
The governor polled 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes, winning by a margin of 66,252 votes. He also carried 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas.
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His victory puts him in the company of former governors Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Rauf Aregbesola, who were also able to secure second terms in office.
For years, the politics of Osun has been characterised by fierce contests, shifting alliances and the difficulty of incumbents securing consecutive electoral mandates. But Adeleke has now broken that pattern. What, therefore, worked in his favour?
Incumbency advantage
Adeleke went into the election with the advantage of incumbency and four years of visibility across the state.
As governor, he had the opportunity to implement and publicise government programmes, commission projects and maintain regular contact with communities and interest groups.
Beyond the projects and programmes of his administration, incumbency also gave Adeleke an established political platform from which to mobilise supporters across the state.
In a closely contested election such as Osun’s, the advantage of being the sitting governor can be significant, particularly when combined with a strong grassroots structure.
Adeleke family’s political influence
The political influence of the Adeleke family remained an important factor in the election.
The family has maintained a strong presence in Osun politics, particularly in Osun West, where it has built a formidable political network over the years.
Adeleke’s political structure, reinforced by loyalists and supporters who have remained with him through successive elections, provided the organisational base needed to prosecute the campaign.
The family’s influence was also evident in Adeleke’s emergence in the 2022 governorship election, when he defeated the then-incumbent governor, Gboyega Oyetola.
PDP structure followed him to Accord
One of the major talking points ahead of the election was Adeleke’s decision to leave the PDP and contest under the Accord Party.
Ordinarily, changing political platforms shortly before an election could pose a serious organisational challenge.
However, the absence of a PDP candidate meant that Adeleke was able to retain much of the political support associated with his previous platform.
Rather than dissipating, the political structure built around Adeleke largely moved with him to Accord.
This became particularly important in a contest where the APC was seeking to regain control of the state.
Opposition vote split
Another factor that worked in Adeleke’s favour was the failure of the opposition vote to consolidate behind a single challenger.
While Oyebamiji emerged as the APC candidate and the major challenger to Adeleke, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) also fielded Najeem Salaam, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly and a former governorship candidate.
Salaam’s participation provided another option for voters opposed to the incumbent.
He eventually finished third with 17,180 votes, meaning a portion of the votes that could have otherwise strengthened the APC challenge went to another opposition platform.
In a closely fought election, such a division can make a significant difference.
Strong grassroots mobilisation
The results also showed that Adeleke’s campaign was able to translate political support into votes across several local government areas.
The governor won 19 of the 30 local government areas, including key areas such as Osogbo.
In Osogbo, Adeleke secured 36,480 votes against Oyebamiji’s 30,474 votes.
His performance across several areas traditionally associated with the PDP also helped build the statewide margin that ultimately delivered victory.
The ability to mobilise voters at the grassroots level, particularly in areas where political structures are deeply rooted, proved crucial.
APC’s failure to fully exploit anti-incumbency
The APC entered the election with the objective of reclaiming Osun after losing the state to Adeleke in 2022.
Oyebamiji, a former Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), was presented as the party’s candidate in an effort to challenge the incumbent.
The party, however, could not convert its opposition strength into a statewide majority.
Although the APC won 11 local government areas, its total votes remained below Adeleke’s tally by more than 66,000.
The result suggests that opposition to the incumbent, where it existed, was not sufficiently concentrated to dislodge him.
The 2022 victory provided a foundation
Adeleke’s 2026 victory cannot be separated from his breakthrough four years earlier.
In 2022, he defeated Oyetola in one of the most closely watched governorship elections in the state.
That victory gave him four years to establish himself as governor, consolidate his political base and strengthen his relationships with communities and political stakeholders.
The 2026 election therefore became a test of whether the support that brought him to office in 2022 could be sustained.
The result indicates that he succeeded in retaining a substantial portion of that support.
Symbolic victories at political heavyweights’ polling units
Some of the results from polling units associated with prominent political figures also provided symbolic highlights during the election.
Adeleke’s party won at a polling unit associated with former governor Gboyega Oyetola, repeating the feat recorded during the 2022 election.
Such results may not determine the overall outcome of an election, but they often carry considerable political significance, particularly in a state where political personalities and their support bases remain influential.
The results also demonstrated that voters did not necessarily follow the political preferences of prominent leaders in their respective communities.
A different chapter in Osun politics
Beyond the numbers, Adeleke’s re-election represents a significant development in the political history of Osun.
His victory shows that an incumbent governor can overcome the state’s historically competitive political environment and secure a second consecutive mandate.
It also highlights the importance of a combination of factors — incumbency, grassroots mobilisation, political structures, family influence, opposition vote splitting and the ability to consolidate support across local government areas.
The victory now gives him another four years to consolidate his administration and pursue the policies and programmes on which he sought a fresh mandate.
More importantly, Adeleke has joined the small circle of Osun governors who have successfully crossed the second-term hurdle — breaking what had become a significant political jinx in the state.