…can Oyebanji break the jinx of smooth transition from 1999?
…it may not be an easy battle as many envisaged despite federal might backing Oyebanji’s candidacy
Today Ekiti citizens will decide who governs their state popularly known as the fountain of knowledge for the next four years.
In this analysis, TheNewsGuru will mirror the Guber poll with the sole intent of predicting the shape it may eventually take.
Ekiti has 16 local government areas, 177 wards, and 2,445 polling units, electoral outcomes are regularly shaped by a handful of high-population LGAs where mobilisation is strongest.
There are 1,059,000 registered voters who will cast their votes today to determine who becomes the next governor..
Ekiti is arguably one of the civil servants state in Nigeria, reportedly parading the highest number of professors in Nigeria.
Barely 24 hours to the gubernatorial polls, there was a misleading report that the Social Democratic Party, SDP had pulled out of the race. This was immediately debunked that the party’s flag bearer Peter Obafemi is very much in the race.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan is conducting his very first off-cycle election in the South West, Nigerians fervently hope that he would not follow footsteps of his predecesor who declared his first two off-cycle polls as inconclusive, (Kogi and Osun).
The apex electoral body finalized the ballot for the election. While the All Progressives Congress (APC) has historical dominance in the state, the race is a crucial test of whether a serving governor can break the state’s famous anti-incumbency pattern to secure a consecutive second term.
The main political gladiators contesting the governor’s job on the final INEC candidate list include:
Oluyede Olumayokun Oluwole – Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
Olajuyin Ikusayedegbe Oyebanji – Labour Party (LP)
Osinkolu Oluwasegun Ayodele – Young Progressives Party (YPP)
Bejide Oluwadare Patrick – African Democratic Congress (ADC)
Abegunde Ayobami Blessing – New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)
Ojo Ayodeji – Action Democratic Party (ADP) [1]
Others are:
Falegan Opeyemi David – Accord
Omotosho Mathew Olu – Action Alliance (AA)
Akande Oluwasegun Samuel – African Action Congress (AAC)
Anifowoshe Joseph Olanrewaju – All People’s Movement (APM)
Awogbemi Bidemi Olaiya – Action Peoples Party (APP)
Ayodele Olaniyi Olanrewaju Praise – People’s Redemption Party (PRP)
Adetunji Victor Damilola – Zenith Labour Party (ZLP)
Major determinants:
While Governor Oyebanji has secured high-profile endorsements—including backing from President Bola Tinubu and a unified front from several former state governors—these 13 candidates are actively campaigning to capitalize on local economic anxieties and voter desires for fresh structural governance.
In some quarters, Abiodun Oyebanji is largely seen as a governor that was handpicked by the political godfathers of the state.
They claim that in the last four years of his administration he has been servicing the interests of those godfathers who crowned him Governor.
This is one major determinant that may work against him today as many Ekiti people seem to be aware of this ugly development.
His developmental strides in the state too are being queried openly that he just rode on the back of his predecesor and nothing else.
Another school of thought also argued that the incumbent does not have any strong contender against him so he might just take another casual walk back to Government House for another second term.
On the other hand, it’s strongly believed that the PDP candidate, Oluyede Oluwole would have given Oyebanji a bloody nose if not for his heavy support base laced to godfathers across party lines.
Another strong candidate is Peter Obafemi of the SDP, his party has a strong political base in the State.
Other contenders are just ‘agberos’ accompanying the major contenders in today’s election.
Going by historical facts, second term bids in the State are always herculean.
From 1999 till date no governor has enjoyed an overflow into a second term.
From Niyi Adebayo, Fayose, Oni, Fayemi no governor got a second term though Fayose and Fayemi miraculously returned but not via a direct second term.
Is Oyebanji going to break this jinx today? If he does, then for the first time there’s going to be a smooth transition into a second term in Ekiti State but anything can still happen , Ekiti voters are highly unpredictable.