While OPay is currently moving forward with a high-profile US IPO (targeting a $4 billion valuation with banks like Citi and JPMorgan), there is a strong argument among economists and local analysts that additional listing on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) would have been a more strategic home-court advantage.
OPay was built on Nigeria. Its 50 million users are Nigerians. Its agents walk Nigerian streets. Its revenue flows in Naira. Its growth story, compelling as it is, would not exist without the infrastructure, regulatory goodwill, and consumer trust that Nigeria provided while the company was still finding its footing.
To be fair, the rationale for a US listing is not without merit. Deeper capital pools, global visibility, stronger analyst coverage, and the credibility associated with a New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq listing are genuine advantages, particularly for a company with regional and long-term international ambitions.
But capital alone does not determine the wisdom of a listing decision. The most enduring public market stories are often those where investors genuinely understand the business they are backing. On that measure, OPay’s US journey may face more headwinds than its advisers are acknowledging.
As investors look toward the potential 2026 listing, several factors could make this US journey a challenging climb.
OPay’s road to Wall Street isn’t without its speed bumps. OPay’s ownership structure is unique—it was founded by Chinese billionaire Zhou Yahui and is backed by SoftBank.
The US regulators and investors have heightened sensitivity toward companies with significant Chinese ties.
OPay may face extra scrutiny regarding data privacy, corporate governance, and capital flow between its Nigerian operations and its Chinese-linked parent entities.
OPay is targeting a $4 billion (N5 trillion) valuation, double its 2021 figure. While African fintech is hot, the growth at all costs era is over. US investors are now prioritising profitability and sustainable unit economics over just user count.
Rivals like Moniepoint and PalmPay are fighting for the same turf. If OPay’s margins are squeezed by a price war to keep its 50 million users, that $4 billion price tag for a US IPO might look expensive to a skeptical Wall Street.
What tends to be overlooked in this conversation is how significantly Nigeria’s own capital market has evolved. At least eight companies listed on NGX now carry market capitalisations exceeding N5 trillion, among them MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, BUA Foods, and Airtel Africa. The exchange is no longer a symbolic venue. It is a credible one.
David Adonri, Vice Chairman of Highcap Securities, is direct on this point: “The Nigerian capital market has attained a level of depth and sophistication where companies with strong domestic fundamentals can successfully raise capital locally”.
He further said, “For a company like OPay, whose operations, customer base and revenue are substantially rooted in Nigeria, a domestic listing would provide stronger alignment between the business and the investors who best understand its market realities.”
Other proponents of the US route correctly argue that Nigerian institutional investors may not yet match the sheer liquidity depth available on Wall Street, and that international visibility can accelerate strategic partnerships and expansion opportunities.
Those are valid considerations. Yet they also raise a more fundamental question: whether analysts who have never interacted with an OPay agent or relied on USSD transactions are best positioned to determine the company’s long-term value.
Increasingly, the more compelling argument may not be an either-or decision, but a sequencing question. A domestic primary listing, potentially complemented by an international secondary listing over time, could provide OPay with both local legitimacy and global visibility.
Investors in US markets are often wary of companies whose revenue is concentrated in a single, volatile economy. Since OPay earns in Naira but will report to US investors in Dollars, any significant devaluation of the Naira (which has been volatile recently) could wipe out growth figures on paper.
Also, high inflation in Nigeria affects the purchasing power of OPay’s 50+ million users, potentially slowing transaction volume. OPay’s success is built entirely on the Nigerian consumer. By listing locally, OPay could turn its 50 million+ users into shareholders.
By doing so, users who own skin in the game are less likely to churn to competitors like PalmPay or Moniepoint. A local IPO allows the average Nigerian to benefit from the country’s digital transformation, rather than the wealth being exported to Wall Street investors.
OPay successfully pivoted from ride-hailing to a financial super app. However, Western markets have historically been skeptical of the super app model (unlike Asia), often preferring pure-play companies that do one thing exceptionally well.
OPay will need to convince US investors that its multi-service ecosystem is a synergy, not a distraction. It is true that OPay has the scale and the “A-list” advisors, but to win over the NYSE or NASDAQ, it must prove it can thrive despite Nigeria’s currency volatility and satisfy US appetites for transparency and steady profits.
Nigeria’s regulatory environment can shift quickly and decisively. Recent directives from the Central Bank of Nigeria, including rules restricting PoS agents to a single financial institution, demonstrate how rapidly the operating landscape can evolve.
As a US-listed company, OPay would face the dual burden of complying with both domestic regulatory oversight and stringent US disclosure obligations. That could significantly increase operational and compliance complexity.
There is also an important relationship dimension that numbers alone cannot fully capture. Domestic listing decisions often shape broader perceptions of long-term market commitment among regulators, policymakers, and the investing public. A company whose operations are overwhelmingly rooted in Nigeria but whose public market debut is reserved primarily for foreign investors inevitably sends a signal. Perception matters.
A US IPO may offer OPay capital, visibility, and global prestige. But the company’s board must still confront a more strategic question, one its investment bankers have little incentive to emphasise: should the Nigerians who built this market, sustained this platform, and supported this business through years of economic volatility be excluded from meaningful early ownership?
Wall Street analysts will apply emerging-market discounts to a Lagos-headquartered fintech serving a cash-transitioning economy. They will model currency risk aggressively into valuation assumptions and assess governance standards through frameworks developed largely for Silicon Valley firms.
Domestic institutional investors, pension funds, asset managers, and retail investors bring a different perspective. They combine market familiarity with growing institutional sophistication, allowing them to evaluate OPay through both operational relevance and long-term commercial viability.
OPay has every right to pursue the listing venue it considers most commercially advantageous. But listing decisions carry commercial, regulatory, and reputational consequences. A company built almost entirely on Nigerian consumers, Nigerian infrastructure, and Nigerian regulatory accommodation cannot assume that domestic goodwill will remain permanently unaffected by decisions that appear to exclude the very market that enabled its rise.
The Nigerian Exchange has evolved significantly and is increasingly capable of supporting large-scale technology listings. The more important question now is whether OPay is prepared to reciprocate the loyalty, scale, and growth it has gained from the market that made it possible.
While the US IPO provides the massive capital OPay needs for global expansion, a Nigerian listing would have provided a safer, more stable foundation by aligning the company’s financial reporting. For instance, one of the biggest risks of a US listing is the Naira-to-Dollar exchange rate.
OPay earns in Naira but must report earnings and pay dividends in Dollars.
If the Naira devalues, OPay’s growth looks like a loss to US investors, even if they are dominating the local market. On the NGX, OPay’s financials would be in Naira, matching its revenue stream and making its performance much easier for investors to value accurately without the currency noise.