Nigerian airlines have warned of a potential shutdown of operations from April 20 as surging jet fuel prices continue to outpace revenue generation.
The Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), representing major domestic carriers, issued the warning in a formal communication to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), accusing fuel marketers of artificially inflating aviation fuel prices beyond sustainable levels.
According to the operators, jet fuel prices have increased by approximately 270 percent since late February, a surge they described as “astronomical and artificial,” noting that the rise exceeds global crude oil price movements.
The airlines said current revenue levels are insufficient to cover fuel costs alone, raising concerns about operational viability and the sustainability of flight services across the country.
Jet fuel accounts for a substantial portion of airline operating expenses in Africa, estimated at between 30 percent and 40 percent, compared to a global average of 20 percent to 25 percent.
This disparity leaves African carriers more vulnerable to fuel price shocks, particularly in volatile global energy markets.
The current spike in aviation fuel prices has been partly attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting global oil supply chains, including disruptions linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The resulting increase in crude oil prices has translated into higher refined product costs, including aviation turbine fuel.
However, MEMAN has disputed the airlines’ claims, stating that the quoted fuel prices are significantly above prevailing market averages.
The association noted that jet fuel distribution involves specialised handling, infrastructure, and logistics, which contribute to higher operational costs.
Industry data shows that Nigeria’s aviation sector consumed approximately 2.1 million litres of jet fuel per day in March, underscoring the scale of exposure to fuel price fluctuations.
Compounding the situation, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, currently the country’s only domestic producer of jet fuel, recorded no deliveries to the local market during the same period.
This has increased reliance on imported supply, further exposing airlines to foreign exchange pressures and global price volatility.
At the same time, tanker-tracking data indicates that Nigeria’s exports of refined petroleum products, including jet fuel, more than doubled month-on-month in March, raising concerns about supply allocation within the domestic market.
The airlines warned that adjusting ticket prices to reflect rising fuel costs could significantly reduce passenger demand, given current economic conditions.
Conversely, a shutdown of operations would have broader economic consequences, including job losses, disruption to financial institutions, and heightened security risks due to reduced connectivity.
Market analysts note that the aviation sector is approaching a critical threshold, where sustained fuel price increases without corresponding revenue growth could force carriers to scale down operations or exit certain routes.
The looming April 20 deadline signals escalating tensions between airlines and fuel marketers, with stakeholders calling for urgent intervention to stabilise pricing and ensure the continued operation of the sector.
Without a resolution, Nigeria’s aviation industry faces a high risk of operational disruption, with potential ripple effects across trade, tourism, and economic activity nationwide.