As political activities heighten ahead of the national convention of the political parties next month where presidential candidates will emerge, the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar recently raised the issue of Zoning of the presidency. Atiku is the lone voice on this issue as it is taken for granted by Nigerians that after eight years of the administration of late President Muhammadu Buhari from the North the presidency will remain in the South till 2031.
Respect for this unwritten tradition of power rotation or zoning of the presidency between the North and the South is believed to be the major reason why no Northern politician that has electoral value, apart from Atiku, has indicated interest in contesting the 2027 presidential election to allow the South complete eight years in Aso Rock Presidential Villa. The former vice president argued that Zoning is alien to the Nigerian constitution and should not be a clog in the ambition of anyone until it is entrenched in the constitution.
Historically, the issue of zoning of high-profile political positions took the front burner during the second Republic. Walter Ofonagoro, late Minister of information gave elaborate insight into the zoning arrangement during the second Republic.
He wrote: “The idea of zoning the presidency, along with the twin idea of rotation, was developed by the late Dr. K. O. Mbadiwe at the beginning of the Second Republic.
“His idea, which he captioned ‘We Zone to Unzone,’ involved zoning the presidential candidacy of the party, on a regional basis, in rotation, among the constituent regions of the federation. The zoning and rotation idea was to be for a period of 30 years, the purpose of which was to establish in the public consciousness that every Nigerian citizen, no matter his ethnic origin or religious persuasion should be seen to be entitled, as of right, to aspire to the Presidency of this country, with the support of his fellow country men and women, and in an orderly fashion that respects the rights of all to occupy the highest office in the land. The NPN (National Party of Nigeria) to which Dr. Mbadiwe belonged, bought the idea and implemented it at the NPN presidential primaries that produced the party’s standard bearer for the 1979 elections. I was present at the 1979 party convention, held at the Casino Cinema, Yaba, Lagos, where only candidates of northern origin contested the party’s presidential primaries and they were as follows: Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, Dr. Ibrahim Tahir, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Alhaji Maitama Sule, Dr. Joseph Tarka, Professor Iya Abubakar, Dr. Olusola Saraki and others.
“The Shagari Presidency was, therefore, the first term of a rotational presidency “arrangement” zoned to the North on a regional basis, and contested for in the NPN, only by candidates drawn from all parts of the North. No southern candidate contested the presidential primary in the 1979 NPN Presidential primaries.”
In 1998 the Peoples Democratic Party founding fathers (Atiku was prominent among them) found it expedient to incorporate “zoning” into the party’s constitution. This led to the insertion of the frequently cited provision of Article 7(2) (c) into the PDP constitution.
This article provides as follows: “In pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of party and public elective offices and it shall be enforced by the appropriate Executive Committee at all levels.”
In 2010 when former President Goodluck Jonathan indicated interest in contesting the 2011 election Abubakar Atiku led those that insisted that the presidency remained zoned to the North even after the death of late President Umar Yar’adua. When Jonathan refused to back down, Atiku and other Northern politicians floated a platform called Northern Political Leaders Forum, NPLF, to actualise retention of presidency in the North for eight years as per zoning arrangement and threatened fire and brimstone if this is truncated.
They sought to claim the ‘Northern ticket’ from former President Goodluck Jonathan who became the president following the death of former President Umar Musa Yar’adua.
The forum said zoning the ticket to the North was to “safeguard the system of equity and fairness which would give all Nigerians a sense of belonging”.
“In fact, it is not even about the presidency; zoning and rotation affect all levels and segments of public office in the country. We believe that zoning and rotation will, for the foreseeable future serve the best interest of Nigeria and its political stability, at least in the short-and medium-term,” the Forum had noted.
When it became obvious that former President Goodluck Jonathan will emerge presidential candidate, the NPLF resorted to threats and blackmail over zoning.
Sometime in October 2010, a paramount member of this Northern Elders Political Leaders Forum, one Alhaji Lawal Kaita, a former governor of Kaduna state and a close ally of former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, stated that the North would make Nigeria ungovernable for President Jonathan if he emerged victorious at the polls.
“Anything short of a Northern President is tantamount to stealing our Presidency. Jonathan has to go and he will go. Even if he uses the incumbency power to get his nomination on the platform of the PDP, he would be frustrated out.”
Kaita, founding member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and close ally of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, had at that time warned that the North should not be blamed for the calamity that will befall the country, if Jonathan emerges President next year.
“The North is determined, if that happens, to make the country ungovernable for President Jonathan or any other Southerner who finds his way to the seat of power on the platform of the PDP against the principle of the party’s zoning policy.”
Atiku Abubakar come out openly on the 14th of December 2010 to say “Let me again send another message to the leadership of our great country, especially the political leadership that those who make peaceful change impossible, make violent change inevitable.”
Present when Atiku made this threat of violent change in Abuja were the following people; General Ibrahim Babangida, General Mohammed Aliyu Gusua, Atiku Abubakar, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu; Lawal Kaita; AVM Hamza Abdullahi, Alhaji Isa Ozi Salami, Professor A.T. Abubakar and others.
Atiku eventually dumped PDP with his followers in 2015 and joined the APC when former President Goodluck sought a second term. Atiku was to return to PDP again to pick the ticket of the party and contested against late President Buhari who retained his position during the presidential polls.
In 2022 Atiku was again in the race despite the fact that a fellow Northerner is about completing eight years as president. This time around Atiku pushed issue of zoning under the carpet, arguing that what is more important is dislodging the APC from power over the catastrophe that was inflicted on the country during the tenure of Buhari.
Atiku’s insistence in jettisoning the zoning arrangement is central to the crisis that crippled and fragmented the PDP as key members of the party refused to allow any aspirant from the North to pick the party ticket. Despite the opposition, Atiku went ahead to pick the PDP ticket during the national convention and the outcome is today history. With PDP in the emergency ward Atiku did not border to stay out and assist in resuscitating it but jumped ship to the ADC.
Atiku also argued that he is seeking to stop power remaining in the South beyond 2027 because the South has spent more years in power that the North since 1999.
The former vice president was taken to cleaners for compartmentalizing the leadership of the country that gained independence in 1960. Questions were raised if Atiku, because of his personal ambition, wants to wipe away the history of Nigeria for 39 years where the North held sway either as military Head of State or President for over 35 years before the advent of the Fourth Republic.
A respondent to Atiku’s position in the social media on the issue of the number of years the North has controlled power since 1999 wrote: “North had spent 47 years in power out of 65 years of independent. I don’t want to believe that VP Atiku is now saying that Tafawa Balewa, Yakubu Gowon, Murtala Mohammed, Mohamadu Buhari, Ibrahim Babangida, Sanni Abacha, Abdulsalami, Yar’adua, Muhammadu Buhari were not Nigeria Presidents/Head of States. So we should forget about them and remove their names from our History books?”
Atiku’s u-turn on power rotation or zoning and his alibi that there is an imbalance in the number of years South governed the country since 1999 as compared to the North expectedly generated negative reactions from across the country. The former vice president appears to be standing alone on this issue.
Some political Observers are of the view that Atiku may be at desperation point to actualise his long time dream as age is catching up on his. He has already come out to confess that 2027 will be his last shot at the presidency. Whichever way it goes there appears to be a sublime conclusion that any political party that gives its presidential ticket to any Northern candidate at this critical point may invariably be working, consciously or unconsciously, in favour of President Bola Tinubu. That may also apply to any party that gives its ticket to Atiku Abubakar.
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