Political strategist and Convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, has explained why he believes a merger between the presidential candidates of the African Democratic Congress, Atiku Abubakar, and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, may be difficult ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Ardo said Atiku was unlikely to withdraw from the presidential race, despite the possibility of retaining his support base if he decided to step aside.
He, however, said Obi had a greater willingness to withdraw from the race but could lose the backing of his supporters if he did so.
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Speaking on Arise News, Ardo identified the different positions of the two politicians and the reactions of their support bases as major obstacles to any potential coalition against President Bola Tinubu.
“My view is that Atiku does not have the propensity by himself to say, ‘I will step down.’ If he says so, he will not have a problem with his support base. But the issue is that he is highly unlikely to say that,” he said.
“Then Peter Obi has the propensity to say, ‘I will step down.’ But if he says so, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base. His support base will not go with him. So, now, these are the two problems.”
Ardo said resolving the two challenges would be critical to achieving any form of merger between the two opposition camps.
“Unless we are able to resolve these two challenges, then I don’t see the fusing together being possible,” he said.
He noted, however, that the inability of Atiku and Obi to form a coalition would not necessarily prevent either politician from mounting a strong challenge against Tinubu.
According to him, each of the two opposition figures has the capacity to alter the political equation and potentially defeat the incumbent if they deploy effective strategies.
“However, even if they do not fuse together, individually, anyone of them has the capacity to upturn the order, depending on how he strategises himself,” Ardo said.
“So, even if they don’t, they still have the capacity to win the election against the incumbent on an individual basis.”