Analysts are increasingly viewing Iran’s ability to hold the Strait of Hormuz as a victory in the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
The Gulf War, which has sparked intense debates among economic and geopolitical experts, has led to a growing consensus that the U.S. has failed to secure a victory, while Iran has triumphed simply by retaining control of the vital Strait of Hormuz.
This was the central theme of the latest episode of the Drinks & Mic Podcast, featuring Bismarck Rewane, CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited.
Bismarck Rewane drew historical parallels, emphasizing the significance of the month of March as a turning point. Rewane invoked the story of Julius Caesar, highlighting the potential for unexpected upheaval.
Rewane further noted that markets have already accounted for this shift, with oil prices surging and signs of disunity within Western alliances.
He highlighted the contrast between government windfalls from rising oil prices and the economic hardship faced by ordinary citizens, particularly in countries like Nigeria, where the cost of fuel is steadily rising.
Tunji Andrews, CEO of Awabah, also weighed in, emphasizing the symbolic value of Iran’s survival.
The ongoing conflict has caused global oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel, with significant repercussions for local manufacturers and consumers in Nigeria.
The war, which began in February 2026 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over failed nuclear talks, was initially expected to last only a few weeks.
However, over a month later, there is no clear resolution, leading to concerns about long-term economic consequences, especially regarding the cost of living.
In Nigeria, the rising cost of crude oil has led to a dramatic increase in petrol prices, with the price of a litre climbing from less than N900 to over N1,350.
Arnold Dublin Green, MD/CEO of Renaissance Capital Africa, took a direct stance on the issue, asserting that “The U.S. has lost.” He pointed to soaring inflation, rising fuel prices, and fractures within the Western alliance, especially as divisions have become apparent within U.S. politics.
Samson Esemued, Chief Investment Officer at Zrosk Investment Management Ltd., offered a broader perspective, arguing that the conflict has exposed critical vulnerabilities in global capitalism.
He identified three key pillars that have been undermined: the reliability of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, the role of the U.S. Navy as the guarantor of maritime security, and the perception of the U.S. as a benevolent superpower.
Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure have also had significant effects on global energy markets. Iran’s recent strikes have knocked out approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take between three and five years.
This disruption, valued at an estimated $20 billion annually, continues to threaten energy supplies to major markets in Europe and Asia.
Analysts agree that the Gulf conflict has redefined the concept of victory, exposing the vulnerabilities in U.S. strategy. While Iran’s survival serves as a major geopolitical statement, the U.S. faces economic fallout and fractured alliances.