Terrorist groups operating in Nigeria’s north-east are expanding their use of commercial, off-the-shelf drones (COTS), raising concerns over an escalation in attacks on military formations and civilian targets.
The development has been observed in Borno and Yobe states where insurgents have increasingly deployed drones for surveillance and attacks.
Over the weekend beginning February 28, Nigerian soldiers repelled Boko Haram attacks on three forward operating bases in the region.
The troops killed 10 terrorists during the encounters and recovered several weapons, including armed drones.
Earlier this year, Premium Times reported that fighters of the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) had acquired 35 quadcopter drones transported through smuggling routes in the Lake Chad basin.
Ezenwa E. Olumba, an analyst at the London School of Economics and Political Science, warned that the development could signal a more dangerous phase of insecurity in Nigeria.
He said: “If ISWAP and other terrorist groups can obtain drones at scale, it suggests that insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the north-east and north-west, may be entering a more dangerous phase.”
Olumba said insurgents across the region have previously used drones for intelligence gathering, targeting weapons and filming propaganda.
He said the addition of armed drones could significantly alter the pattern of attacks by terrorist groups.
Olumba said: “Drones can enable them to conduct repeated, sustained strikes against the Nigerian military formations rather than sporadic raids.”
He added: “It also raises the prospect of coordinated multi-drone attacks by the terrorists using drone swarms.”
Residents in affected communities have expressed concerns that the increasing use of drones by insurgents could lead to intensified violence.
Samuel Malik, an analyst with Good Governance Africa, said ISWAP has shown an ability to adapt quickly to changing military strategies.
He said: “ISWAP has proven to be highly adaptive, learning and evolving in response to state military strategies.”
In response to the growing threat, Nigerian authorities have banned the use of commercial-style civilian drones in parts of the country most affected by insurgency.
Taiwo Adebayo, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, urged the government to intensify efforts to block supply routes used by the insurgents.
Adebayo called for stronger measures to disrupt smuggling corridors such as those around the Lake Chad basin and cut off the financing networks of the groups.
Olumba said the acquisition of armed drones by insurgents is partly driven by their financial capacity to purchase drones that may be used only once.
Analysts say governments must develop stronger countermeasures and expand domestic drone production to respond to the evolving threat.
Nigeria has recently increased domestic drone production through companies such as Briech UAS and Terra Industries.