OPEC+ has delivered only about three-quarters of the production hikes it targeted since April, with actual output falling nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) short of agreed levels, according to data reviewed by Reuters.
The shortfall, equivalent to 0.5% of global oil demand, has tightened market conditions and supported crude prices close to $69 per barrel.
The group, which produces around half of the world’s oil and includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, agreed to begin unwinding voluntary cuts in April 2023.
At the peak of its supply curbs, OPEC+ removed 5.85 million bpd from the market through three separate layers of reductions.
Eight member countries that implemented voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd began raising output in April, with plans to fully unwind those cuts by the end of September. A further 1.65 million bpd in cuts are scheduled to be gradually lifted from October.
Between April and August, however, OPEC+ delivered only 75% of the planned 1.92 million bpd increase. Production levels fell short as some members compensated for past overproduction through “compensation cuts,” while others faced structural capacity constraints.
Saudi Arabia was responsible for more than half of the cumulative production increase, adding 747,000 bpd between March and August. Other members, including Algeria, Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia, are already producing close to capacity, limiting their ability to raise supply further.
The shortfall has contributed to a tighter market balance. Brent crude prices climbed to a seven-week high of $69 per barrel, while the immediate delivery premium over six-month futures widened to $2.39, the highest since early August.
Analysts at Barclays and Kpler noted that the futures curve indicates supply tightness, contrasting with expectations of a glut.
OPEC+ is scheduled to raise output by 547,000 bpd in September and a further 137,000 bpd in October. Analysts expect the group will likely deliver closer to half of these targets as capacity constraints persist.
RBC Capital projected that the October increase of 137,000 bpd may translate into a real gain of no more than 70,000 bpd.
Spare capacity within the group remains concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with the International Energy Agency estimating OPEC+ spare capacity at 4.1 million bpd in August.
However, Barclays forecasts this could fall to 2 million bpd by September 2026, raising concerns about the market’s buffer against supply shocks.
For now, OPEC+’s inability to fully meet output hike commitments has prevented a supply glut and supported oil prices, keeping Brent stable around $69 per barrel despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.