Oil prices fell on Monday as the resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region coincided with expectations that OPEC+ will approve another production hike in November.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped by 43 cents or 0.6 percent to trade at $69.70 a barrel as of 07:30 a.m. in Nigeria after closing last week at its strongest level since July 31.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 49 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $65.23 a barrel, reversing most of Friday’s gains.
Both benchmarks had posted weekly gains of more than four percent, their sharpest since June as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure disrupted fuel exports.
Kurdistan Exports Resume After 2.5 Years
The Iraqi oil ministry confirmed that crude shipments from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey restarted on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years.
The restart follows an interim agreement between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and international oil companies operating in the region.
Iraq’s oil minister stated that initial flows of 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) have been restored through the pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, with volumes expected to rise gradually to 230,000 bpd.
The United States reportedly pressed for the resumption to stabilize international oil supplies.
OPEC+ Output Plans for November
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is expected to approve another output increase of at least 137,000 bpd at its upcoming meeting on Sunday.
The group is seeking to expand supply in a bid to capture market share as oil prices remain above $65 per barrel.
However, OPEC+ continues to struggle with output compliance. Industry data shows the group has been producing almost 500,000 bpd below its agreed targets, raising doubts about its ability to deliver on further increases.
Analysts Highlight Tight Market Conditions
Michael McCarthy, CEO of investor platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand, noted that the market remains caught between near-term supply additions and a structurally tight outlook.
“Ongoing fears of production increase are limiting gains, but a tight near-term outlook has crude prices in a vice as the trading week begins,” McCarthy said.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets also warned that while oversupply fears dominate the Q4 2025 outlook, geopolitical risks remain elevated.
“As OPEC prepares to further draw down its spare capacity, the risk of an October geopolitical surprise continues to rise,” the firm stated, citing ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Iran.
Despite the bearish impact of new supply, geopolitical developments continue to shape market sentiment. Ukraine’s escalating drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure have reduced the country’s fuel exports, while Moscow launched heavy strikes on Kyiv over the weekend in retaliation.
In addition, the United Nations has reinstated sanctions on Iran, including an arms embargo tied to its nuclear program. Tehran has warned of a strong response, a move that could heighten risks to crude supply from the Gulf region.
Oil markets face a delicate balance heading into Q4 2025. While additional supply from Kurdistan and OPEC+ is expected to weigh on prices in the near term, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East could sustain volatility.
Traders are likely to watch closely for OPEC+ decisions this week and further developments in Russia and Iran.