Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from Stable to Positive while affirming its long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings at B, citing stronger foreign exchange reserves, improving economic conditions and continued policy reforms.
The decision, announced on October 9, 2026, reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s external financial position, although the country’s sovereign credit rating remains unchanged.
Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves increased to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, compared with approximately $32 billion in April 2024, strengthening the country’s capacity to meet external obligations and withstand financial shocks.
Net foreign exchange reserves also improved significantly, rising to $34.8 billion at the end of 2025 from approximately $4 billion in 2023.
Fitch expects Nigeria’s economy to expand by 4.3 percent in 2026, supported by improving foreign exchange liquidity, stronger investment inflows and economic reforms.
The agency also projects a current account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026, reflecting stronger external earnings and reduced dependence on imported petroleum products.
However, Nigeria continues to face fiscal pressures, particularly rising debt servicing obligations and relatively weak government revenue.
Fitch projects that interest payments will absorb an average of 27 percent of general government revenue between 2026 and 2028, significantly above the median for similarly rated countries.
For investors, the Positive outlook signals the possibility of a future credit rating upgrade if improvements in reserves, fiscal performance and policy stability are sustained.
Such an upgrade could eventually improve Nigeria’s access to international capital and support lower borrowing costs, although market interest rates will also depend on global financial conditions.
The rating agency warned that policy reversals, renewed foreign exchange instability or deteriorating public finances could undermine the country’s improving credit profile.
Fitch’s decision highlights Nigeria’s stronger external position while underscoring the need for sustainable fiscal reforms and improved domestic revenue generation.