.Says hardships may continue until end of 2026
Yemi Kale, former statistician-general, has urged the federal government to remain committed to ongoing structural reforms despite the short-term hardships they impose on households, warning that abandoning the process could trap the country in another cycle of low growth, high inequality, and fiscal stress.
Delivering his speech entitled ‘Reform and Resilience: Strengthening Nigeria’s Economic Foundations’ at The Platform in Lagos on Wednesday, Kale, who currently serves chief economist at Afrenexim bank, said the government’s reforms since 2023 – subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and tighter monetary policy – have begun stabilising the macroeconomy but stressed that the reforms would be incomplete without strong social protection and structural transformation.
“Reform is like curing a fever,” Kale said. “You must endure some discomfort as the medicine takes effect. But the alternative of letting the fever run just because the pill is bitter, or the injection is too painful, is far worse.”
Monetary and fiscal reforms restoring stability
Kale argued that Nigeria’s monetary policy had regained credibility after years of inconsistency and quasi-fiscal interventions by the Central Bank. He pointed to the sharp increase in the monetary policy rate to 27.5%, one of the steepest in history which was recently reduced to 27%, as well as efforts to mop up excess liquidity through streamlined open market operations.
“Importantly, these actions were accompanied by clearer communication, regular policy reports, forward guidance, and transparent explanations of the inflation outlook,” he said. “The results are now visible. Headline inflation, which averaged 25–30% in 2023 and 2024, has begun to ease towards the low 20s. Every percentage point reduction protects the real value of salaries, pensions, and savings, and reduces uncertainty for investors who must plan projects years in advance.”
He projected that inflation could fall to about 14% by the end of 2026 if reforms are sustained. But he cautioned that households would continue to feel the strain.
“Between now and then, the hardship will continue. The lesson here is clear, reforms must be matched with targeted and effective social cushions to protect the most vulnerable.”
Energy and power: The backbone of growth
The former statistics chief emphasised that no reform agenda could succeed without addressing Nigeria’s chronic energy and electricity challenges.
He praised the launch of the Dangote refinery, which exported its first gasoline cargoes in 2025, as a step toward reducing dependence on imported refined products. But he listed unresolved issues, reliable feedstock supply, transparent pricing formulas, labour disputes, and clear currency settlement mechanisms, that could hinder its impact on domestic supply.
“The broader challenge is to achieve energy security without reverting to hidden subsidies or encouraging monopolistic practices,” Kale said. “This underscores the need for complementary policies such as strong antitrust oversight, transparent pricing, and incentives for new entrants.”
On electricity, he called the 2023 Electricity Act a “bold structural shift” that decentralises regulation to the states.
“In essence, it breaks the old centralised monopoly and opens the door for states to partner with private investors to generate, transmit, and distribute power locally,” he said. “Decentralise, liberalise, and let there be light.”
Kale, however, warned that not all states have the capacity to regulate electricity effectively, urging federal support and regional cooperation to prevent the rise of “36 mini-monopolies.”
Infrastructure, trade, and the business environment
Kale identified infrastructure investment as both an economic necessity and a macroeconomic stabiliser. Citing World Bank projections, he said Nigeria requires $3 trillion by 2050 to meet infrastructure needs, including $575 billion for the transport sector between 2020 and 2043.
“To put this into context, Nigeria’s entire 2025 budget is about $36 billion, and its rebased 2024 GDP was about $275 billion,” he said. “Government alone cannot meet these vast needs. Public-private partnerships are therefore key.”
He urged that part of the savings from subsidy removal should be legislated and earmarked for transport, logistics, and energy infrastructure.
“Embedding this commitment into the national budgeting process and potentially into legislation would help rebuild trust with citizens who have borne the immediate burden of subsidy removal,” he said.
Kale highlighted Nigeria’s telecoms liberalisation as a model for reform. “In 1960, we had fewer than 20,000 telephone lines for 40 million people. By 2001, after four decades of monopoly under NITEL, there were only 400,000 lines. Liberalisation in 2001 changed everything. Within five years, lines rose to over 10 million. Today, Nigeria has over 220 million active subscriptions, contributing 16% of GDP. That is what well-designed reforms can do,” he said.
On trade, he warned that restrictive policies such as export bans, high tariffs, and border closures undermine competitiveness and integration into global value chains.
“While such measures are often justified as protecting local industries, in practice they encourage smuggling, raise consumer prices, and limit efficiency,” he said.
He urged Nigeria to position itself as a continental hub under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Kale acknowledged that while macroeconomic stabilisation was visible in the data, millions of Nigerians still measure progress in “the price of food, the reality of electricity, and their children’s job prospects.”
He praised initiatives like the Student Loan Act and state-level fuel relief packages but called for deeper reforms in education, healthcare, and social protection.
“Without shared opportunities, inequality and unrest will erode stability. Power and fiscal reforms should empower states, while federal economic and agro-processing zones can lift lagging regions,” he said.