Economy

NGX Declines 0.92% Despite CBN’s 50bps Rate Cut, Rebound Likely as Borrowing Costs Ease

The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) closed lower on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, as profit-taking in heavyweight consumer and mid-cap stocks outweighed gains in financial counters despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to reduce interest rates.

The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 0.92 percent to settle at 194,484.52, down from 196,263.55 recorded in the previous session.

Equity market capitalisation fell to ₦124.83 trillion, representing a decline of approximately ₦1.14 trillion from Monday’s ₦125.97 trillion.

Liquidity Improves as Value Crosses ₦53 Billion

Trading activity strengthened compared to Monday:

  • Deals: 72,218

  • Volume: 1,137,404,484 shares

  • Value: ₦53,353,427,342.69

Transaction value rebounded sharply from ₦31.50 billion recorded on February 23, indicating renewed institutional participation even as the index closed lower.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.5 percent following sustained disinflation and improved macroeconomic stability.

Headline inflation eased to 15.10 percent in January 2026, eleven consecutive months of decline, while gross external reserves climbed to $50.45 billion, the highest level in thirteen years.

The rate cut signals a gradual shift from tight monetary policy toward growth support.

Lower interest rates reduce corporate borrowing costs, improve debt servicing capacity and enhance earnings outlooks, particularly for capital-intensive sectors such as manufacturing, consumer goods and industrials.

Despite the policy support, the market closed lower as investors locked in profits after recent strong gains.

Top Gainers

  • JAIZBANK +10.00%

  • TAJSUKS2 +10.00%

  • INFINITY +9.83%

  • FCMB +9.72%

  • FTGINSURE +9.09%

Financial stocks showed resilience, aligning with expectations that lower rates could stimulate credit expansion.

Top Losers

  • DAARCOMM −10.00%

  • TANTALIZER −10.00%

  • BUAFOODS −9.99%

  • LOTUSHAL15 −9.98%

  • ELLAHLAKES −9.96%

The sharp pullback in BUAFOODS, a major index component, significantly contributed to the overall decline.

Heavy turnover was recorded in:

Strong value traded in banking stocks suggests investors are repositioning ahead of expected margin adjustments following the rate cut.

Although lower rates may compress short-term net interest margins, they can boost loan growth and asset quality over time.

Bond instruments remained largely stable.

ETFs recorded gains:

The moderate rise in ETFs suggests portfolio balancing rather than capital flight.

1. Rate Cut as Structural Catalyst

A 50 basis points reduction signals policy normalization after sustained tightening. Historically, equity markets respond positively to rate-cut cycles with a lag of several sessions.

The current dip may represent tactical repositioning rather than structural weakness.

2. Liquidity Recovery Supports Rebound Thesis

Transaction value rebounded above ₦53 billion, confirming capital remains active within the system.

This is not a liquidity-driven selloff.

3. Valuation Reset After Strong Rally

The market had gained nearly 7 percent in the previous week and approached the 200,000 index threshold. Tuesday’s decline reflects healthy consolidation.

4. Medium-Term Outlook

Lower borrowing costs are likely to:

These factors support a rebound scenario once profit-taking subsides.

The NGX remains fundamentally supported by:

Although the market closed lower on Tuesday, the rate cut improves the medium-term equity outlook.

If liquidity remains above ₦50 billion and heavyweights stabilize, the ASI could resume its upward movement toward the 200,000 level in the coming sessions.

Short-term volatility is expected, but structural momentum remains intact.