Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of about N12.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2026 as exports climbed to N27.02 trillion and continued to outpace the country’s demand for imported goods.
Total merchandise trade rose to N41.44 trillion during the three months ended June 2026, strengthening Nigeria’s external trade position as crude oil shipments and other exports generated substantially more value than goods brought into the country.
Imports were valued at N14.42 trillion during the quarter, leaving exports almost twice the size of the country’s import bill.
The resulting N12.6 trillion positive balance represents the difference between goods exported from Nigeria and those imported during the period and provides another indication of the improvement in the country’s external accounts.
The performance also represents a substantial improvement from the first quarter of the year.
Nigeria’s total merchandise trade had stood at about N34.79 trillion in the first three months of 2026, meaning the value of goods traded with the rest of the world increased by roughly N6.65 trillion between the two quarters.
That represents quarterly growth of about 19 percent.
Exports provided most of the momentum.
At N27.02 trillion, outbound trade accounted for approximately 65 percent of Nigeria’s total merchandise trade during the second quarter, compared with about 35 percent attributable to imports.
The figures reinforce Nigeria’s position as a net merchandise exporter during the period, although the composition of the country’s exports continues to highlight its dependence on hydrocarbons.
Crude Oil Generates N12.91tn
Crude oil exports were valued at approximately N12.91 trillion in the second quarter, representing about 47.8 percent of Nigeria’s total exports.
That means almost N1 out of every N2 generated from goods exported during the quarter came directly from crude oil.
The contribution illustrates how strongly movements in international oil prices, production volumes and export capacity continue to influence Nigeria’s trade balance and foreign-exchange earnings.
However, crude oil’s share below half of total exports also means more than N14 trillion of export value came from other categories.
That broader contribution is important for an economy attempting to reduce its longstanding dependence on crude petroleum.
Non-crude exports include petroleum products and other oil-related goods alongside agricultural commodities, manufactured products, raw materials and solid minerals.
Continued growth outside crude oil would make Nigeria’s trade position less vulnerable to changes in international oil prices and production disruptions.
Exports Nearly Double Imports
The size of the gap between exports and imports was one of the strongest features of the second-quarter numbers.
For every N1 worth of goods Nigeria imported during the quarter, the country exported approximately N1.87 worth of goods.
That relationship produced the N12.6 trillion merchandise surplus.
A sustained trade surplus can strengthen Nigeria’s external position because exporters generate foreign currency while imports create demand for foreign exchange.
The effect is particularly important for Nigeria following several years in which dollar shortages, FX backlogs and pressure on the naira created difficulties for businesses and international investors.
Stronger export receipts, alongside remittances, portfolio flows, foreign investment and other sources of foreign currency, can improve liquidity in the foreign-exchange market.
However, a merchandise trade surplus should not be interpreted automatically as an equivalent increase in Nigeria’s foreign reserves.
Export proceeds can be used for debt payments, imported services, profit repatriation and other international obligations, while the balance of payments incorporates considerably more than merchandise trade.
The numbers nevertheless point to a stronger goods-trade position.
Nigeria’s External Trade Expands to N41.44tn
The increase in total trade also shows that Nigeria’s commercial relationship with the rest of the world continued to expand during the quarter.
At N41.44 trillion, the combined value of imports and exports was substantially higher than the N34.79 trillion recorded during the first quarter.
The increase reflects both Nigeria’s role as a major commodity exporter and its large demand for foreign machinery, industrial inputs, vehicles, chemicals, manufactured products and other goods.
For businesses, expanding trade can indicate stronger commercial activity, but the composition matters.
Imports of machinery and productive equipment can support future investment and manufacturing capacity, while excessive dependence on imported consumer goods can increase demand for foreign exchange without necessarily expanding domestic productive capacity.
Nigeria’s policy challenge is therefore not simply to reduce imports but to increase the proportion of imports that contribute to production while expanding the value of goods sold abroad.
Stronger Trade Position Could Support the Naira
The latest trade numbers come as Nigeria’s foreign-exchange environment has improved considerably compared with the severe liquidity constraints experienced in previous years.
A sustained increase in export receipts can provide additional foreign currency to the financial system and reduce pressure created by import demand.
That could complement other sources of dollar liquidity and help strengthen confidence in the naira.
For monetary authorities, however, the durability of the improvement will depend partly on whether export growth can continue beyond periods of unusually favourable commodity prices.
Oil remains particularly important.
Higher crude production increases the number of barrels available for export, while higher international prices increase the dollar value earned from each barrel.
Nigeria therefore stands to benefit significantly when production and prices rise simultaneously.
The reverse is equally true.
A decline in crude prices or renewed production disruptions could quickly weaken export receipts and narrow the merchandise surplus.
High Oil Prices Could Strengthen Q3 Trade Numbers
The outlook for the third quarter has become particularly interesting following the sharp increase in global crude prices caused by the Middle East conflict.
Brent crude has moved toward $100 per barrel as attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure increase concerns about supply from the Persian Gulf.
For Nigeria, elevated crude prices could increase the value of petroleum exports during the third quarter if production and export volumes remain stable.
The country could also attract additional demand for its crude grades as refiners seek alternatives to Middle Eastern barrels affected by shipping disruptions.
This creates the possibility that petroleum export earnings could remain elevated during the current quarter.
But Nigeria would also face higher costs for some imported products, international transportation and other commodities affected by rising energy prices.
The net effect will therefore depend on the size of the additional oil revenue relative to the higher cost of imports.
Dangote Refinery Is Changing Nigeria’s Trade Structure
Another structural change increasingly influencing Nigeria’s external trade is the emergence of Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
For decades, Nigeria exported crude oil while importing large quantities of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products.
That structure meant the country sold relatively unprocessed hydrocarbons abroad and spent foreign exchange importing higher-value products made from the same raw material.
The expansion of domestic refining is gradually changing that relationship.
Dangote Refinery has reduced the country’s requirement for imported petroleum products while simultaneously developing an export business supplying refined products to markets outside Nigeria.
That creates two potential improvements for the trade balance.
Lower fuel imports reduce foreign-exchange demand, while exports of refined products generate additional foreign currency.
The effect could become substantially larger if Dangote completes its planned $14.3 billion expansion, which is expected to double processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029.
At that scale, Nigeria could become a considerably larger exporter of refined petroleum products rather than primarily a supplier of crude.
Diversification Remains the Bigger Challenge
Despite the large second-quarter surplus, the composition of Nigeria’s exports remains the more important long-term issue.
A strong trade balance driven principally by petroleum can improve external finances but still leave the economy exposed to commodity cycles.
Nigeria experienced that vulnerability repeatedly when falling crude prices or lower production reduced government revenue and dollar inflows.
Expanding agricultural processing, manufacturing, solid minerals and other non-oil exports would provide more diversified sources of foreign currency.
It could also create a stronger link between export growth and employment.
Manufactured and processed exports generally involve longer domestic value chains than the export of unprocessed commodities, potentially supporting jobs across production, transportation, packaging, logistics and other services.
The objective for Nigeria is therefore not merely to maintain a trade surplus.
It is to improve the quality and resilience of that surplus.
The N12.6 trillion positive balance recorded in the second quarter demonstrates that Nigeria currently exports considerably more goods by value than it imports.
Whether that translates into a lasting improvement in the country’s external position will depend on its ability to maintain oil production, take advantage of higher crude prices and, more importantly, continue expanding exports beyond crude petroleum.