By Teddy Nwanunobi
Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG, has launched the Nigerian Private Sector Outlook 2026, titled: “The Productivity Imperative for Nigerian Businesses”
The report introduced ‘Strategic Agility’ as a framework for navigating Nigeria’s critical pre-election period while consolidating recent reform gains and accelerating productivity-driven growth.
At the official launch of the report, stakeholders called for urgent measures to translate ongoing economic reforms into broad-based growth, stronger productivity and improved business performance.
During the launch, which held as a hybrid session, the Chairman of NESG, Niyi Yusuf, in his welcome remarks, noted that while Nigeria has weathered one of its most challenging economic adjustment periods in recent history, the focus must now shift to consolidation to sustain progress and avoid policy reversals.
He appreciated the Ministry of Finance for its sustained collaboration with the private-sector-driven policy group and reaffirmed the organisation’s commitment to promoting constructive dialogue between government and businesses. He said the launch of the Nigerian Private Sector Outlook 2026 report was timely, coming at a critical stage in the nation’s economic reform journey, and noted that the report would provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors and business leaders.
Yusuf also welcomed participants from the public and private sectors, development institutions and the wider business community, urging stakeholders to work collectively toward building a more competitive, productive and resilient Nigerian economy.
The event also featured a keynote address by the new Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele.
Delivering the keynote address, the Minister thanked the NESG for convening what he described as a timely forum at a critical point in Nigeria’s economic journey.
According to him, Nigeria is currently at a transition stage, moving from reform to consolidation, from policy intentions to measurable outcomes, and from economic stabilisation to sustainable growth.
He said over the past year, the country had implemented significant reforms aimed at correcting long-standing structural imbalances, improving macroeconomic conditions, strengthening fiscal frameworks and restoring policy transparency. The minister noted that signs of stability were beginning to emerge through a more aligned exchange rate environment, improving fiscal performance and clearer policy signals.
He, however, stressed that stabilisation alone could not be regarded as success, describing it instead as the foundation for long-term prosperity. “The real test now is moving from reform to growth”, he said.
He explained that reforms must now deliver tangible outcomes such as investment inflows, job creation, higher productivity and better living standards. According to him, investment responds not to announcements but to confidence, predictable policies and a competitive framework capable of delivering acceptable returns.
To unlock growth, the minister identified four key priorities, including policy consistency, predictability, lower cost of doing business and improved access to capital. He said reforms must be sustained, warning that policy reversals and mixed signals undermine investor confidence.
He added that businesses require certainty in tax administration, trade policy, foreign exchange regulations and wider regulatory processes.
On business costs, he cited multiple taxation, logistics inefficiencies, supply chain bottlenecks, energy constraints and regulatory overlaps as key barriers that must be addressed urgently. The Minister said the government was targeting real GDP per capita growth of about four to five per cent to make meaningful progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity.
On access to finance, he said the government was strengthening domestic capital markets, expanding credit availability and building long-term financing structures for infrastructure and industry. He added that productivity had remained the missing link in Nigeria’s reform narrative and said stronger performance would require infrastructure, skills development, technology adoption and supportive policies.
The Minister also called for what he termed a “public-policy private partnership”, saying no government can drive growth alone without alignment between policy, private investment priorities and development partner support.
He said that the government would remain focused on deepening reforms, improving ease of doing business, strengthening public financial management and coordinating growth efforts across all tiers of government. He urged the private sector to invest with a medium- to long-term perspective, expand formal operations, engage constructively with policymakers and uphold transparency and governance standards.
The Minister also acknowledged risks including inflationary pressures, global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and political pressures associated with the pre-election cycle but said such risks were manageable through discipline and collaboration.
Also speaking, the Director General of the African Development Bank, AfDB, Group’s Nigeria office, Abdul Kamara, commended Nigeria’s recent reforms and the efforts of the finance ministry. He said the country had recorded improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals, including GDP growth, easing inflation pressures, exchange rate stability, improved non-oil revenues and stronger fiscal and external balances.
Kamara disclosed that the AfDB had approved a two-phase, one-billion-dollar policy-based support operation for Nigeria, with the first 500 million dollars approved and disbursed in 2024. He said the funding supported structural reforms in the energy sector, tax policy reforms, electricity market restructuring, clean cooking initiatives, renewable energy targets, gender inclusion in energy access and the presidential metering policy. He also praised moves to restructure tax administration into a single National Revenue Service, saying it would improve efficiency and digitisation of tax collection.
Presenting highlights of the report, NESG Chief Economist and Director of Research, Olusegun Omisakin, said the central message of the 2026 outlook was the widening gap between macroeconomic stabilisation and actual business performance. He said while headline indicators such as GDP growth, reserves and inflation trends suggested progress, many businesses, especially in manufacturing, continued to struggle with weak productivity and high operating costs.
According to him, manufacturing growth remained subdued, while capacity utilisation and business level indicators showed that gains at the macro level were yet to translate into stronger microeconomic outcomes. Omisakin described the macro-micro disconnect as the defining challenge for Nigeria’s economy and said the report identified critical business risks, including talent shortages, customer losses, cyber threats, supply chain disruptions and industry-specific regulatory bottlenecks. He said the report aimed to stimulate policy discussions on how reforms could better support enterprise growth, productivity and competitiveness.
The event also featured a panel session to discuss findings of the report and pathways for private sector growth. Panellists included Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Olakunle Alake; Chief Economist of the Bank of Industry, Prof. Mutiu Oyinlola; Director of Finance and Operations at Lagos Free Zone Company, Ashish Khemka; Chief Executive Officer and Co-founder of SeamlessHR, Dr Emmanuel Okeleji; and Director of Surveillance and Investigations at the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, Mrs Boladale Adeyinka.