More Nigerians are likely to be plunged into poverty this year, deepening hardship for households that have endured the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. This is despite inflation slowing for most of 2025.
No fewer than two million people will fall below the poverty line in 2026, raising the poverty numbers in Africa’s most populous nation to 141 million, or 62 percent, from an estimated 139 million last year, marking the highest rate ever, according to a new report by professional services and advisory firm PwC.
“Poverty levels are projected to reach 62% of the total population (141 million people) in 2026, reflecting the combined effects of legacy policy gaps, global shocks, and the short-term costs of ongoing reforms,” PwC said in its Nigerian economic outlook.
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“With expanded social protection, productivity-focused reforms, and improved macroeconomic conditions, poverty outcomes could stabilise over time, even as headline indicators remain under pressure in the near term.”
Nigeria embarked on a far-reaching market reform nearly three years ago, with efforts aimed at ensuring stability and predictability in an economy once marked by volatility. The reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and liberalisation of the foreign exchange, stoked prices, hammered consumer spending, and shot up poverty levels.
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Though inflationary pressures are now waning, cooling for the straight eight months to November 2025, and annual growth crossing the average 2 percent it had hovered over the past decade to 3.98 percent as of the third quarter of last year, analysts believe these indicators are not strong enough to tame rising poverty that has crippled household spending.
“I see Nigeria’s poverty problem growing. Growth isn’t projected to occur at robust enough levels for it to make a significant dent in poverty levels. For the poverty picture to change, Nigeria has to pull off 7-9% quarterly economic growth,” said Ikemesit Effiong, partner and head of research at SBM Intelligence.
Africa’s biggest oil producer saw its nominal household spending grow by 19.6 percent from N116.5 trillion in 2024 to an estimated N139.3 trillion in 2025, according to PwC.
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But real household spending contracted by 2.5 percent from N12.2 trillion in 2024 to an estimated N11.9 trillion in 2025, suggesting that poverty may not be retreating soon. The decline in real spending, according to PwC, was driven by rising food prices, transportation costs, and other essential household items.
“Real household spending may begin to recover in 2026; however, the pace of recovery may be constrained by persistent price pressures, high interest rates, and ongoing fiscal constraints.”
Basil Abia, co-founder of data and research firm Truva Intelligence, said current growth, economic stabilisation, and disinflation trends are not yet strong enough to create sufficient earning opportunities for households, stating that the crux of poverty in Nigeria is a mix of both income and food poverty.
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“Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption fell by 6.7 percent, especially in urban areas. This is why poverty will continue climbing,” Abia said.
“To tame this trend, the Federal Government of Nigeria and all the states of the federation, including the FCT, must reduce or completely remove tariffs on essential food items (like rice and wheat) and production inputs (like fertilizer) to further increase food supply and lower costs, scaling up public-private investment in transport, storage, and cold-chain infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses.”
For him, authorities must align fiscal policies to prioritise immediate public spending in high-impact sectors like health, education, and infrastructure and develop safety nets that can respond to sudden economic or climate shocks to protect vulnerable households from falling further into poverty.