Crude oil exports from major Middle Eastern producers have climbed to 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since the war with Iran began in February as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased shipments and more crude moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
Preliminary shipping data from Kpler showed a significant recovery from the severe supply disruption that followed the outbreak of the conflict, although regional exports remain well below pre-war levels.
The recovery has been driven largely by Saudi Arabia, which is on track to export about 5.4 million barrels per day this month, more than double the 2.446 million barrels per day shipped in August.
Saudi shipments from Ras Tanura, its major Gulf export terminal, are expected to reach approximately 3.6 million barrels per day in September, compared with just 929,000 barrels per day in August.
The increase follows changes in Saudi Arabia’s export routes after attacks damaged the kingdom’s East-West pipeline and disrupted shipments through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The East-West pipeline normally provides Saudi Arabia with an important alternative route that allows crude produced in the eastern part of the country to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Damage to the pipeline forced the kingdom to redirect more crude towards its Gulf terminals, increasing the amount of Saudi oil moving through Hormuz.
Oil exports through the strategic waterway are now expected to average about 7.4 million barrels per day in September.
Kpler data showed 19 very large crude carriers carrying Saudi crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week alone.
Each of the tankers has capacity to carry about two million barrels, meaning the vessels represented potential cargo capacity of approximately 38 million barrels.
The increase provides evidence that producers are gradually restoring international crude flows despite continued security risks across the region.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have played important roles in that recovery.
Both countries possess substantial production and export infrastructure and have been working to maintain supplies to customers as the conflict disrupts traditional shipping patterns.
However, the latest figures also show how far Middle Eastern oil exports remain from normal conditions.
The 12.8 million barrels per day expected in September is approximately six million barrels per day below the 18.8 million barrels per day exported in February before the war disrupted regional energy flows.
That represents a shortfall of almost 32 percent compared with February levels.
The difference remains significant for the global oil market because the Middle East contains some of the world’s largest crude exporters and supplies major refining centres across Asia, Europe and other regions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to those flows.
Before the conflict began on February 28, about 125 large commercial vessels typically passed through the waterway each day, including oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers, bulk vessels and container ships.
Approximately 20 percent of global crude oil and LNG supply normally passes through the route.
Disruption to Hormuz therefore has consequences extending beyond individual Gulf producers.
Restrictions can reduce the volume of crude reaching international markets, increase tanker freight and insurance costs and force producers to rely on alternative pipelines and export terminals.
The September recovery could provide some relief to a global market that has experienced substantial volatility as traders respond to military developments and negotiations involving the United States and Iran.
However, the increase in physical exports has not eliminated the geopolitical premium in crude prices.
Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after the United States rejected Iran’s latest proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The simultaneous increase in prices and exports illustrates the two forces currently influencing the market.
Physical supply conditions are improving as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other producers restore shipments, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to support prices because the recovery remains vulnerable to renewed disruption.
Saudi Arabia’s September performance demonstrates the scale of the adjustment.
Its expected 5.4 million barrels per day of exports represents an increase of nearly three million barrels per day from August.
Ras Tanura alone has recovered from 929,000 barrels per day in August to around 3.6 million barrels per day this month.
Yet Saudi exports through the terminal also remain below the 6.411 million barrels per day recorded in February, underscoring the incomplete nature of the recovery.
Shipping data may also not capture every barrel moving through Hormuz.
Some vessels can switch off their Automatic Identification System transponders, making their movements difficult for commercial tracking services to identify.
The Kpler figures should therefore be viewed as preliminary estimates of observable crude flows rather than a final accounting of every shipment.
For the global market, the central question is whether the September recovery can continue.
Further increases from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf producers could restore additional supply and reduce some of the pressure that has kept international crude prices elevated.
A renewed deterioration in security around Hormuz, however, could quickly reverse those gains.
For now, Middle Eastern crude exports have staged their strongest recovery since the conflict began, but with shipments still around six million barrels per day below February levels, the region has yet to return to its pre-war supply position.