ABUJA – A total of 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) will experience flooding in 2026, with 14,118 communities identified as high-risk nationwide, the Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof. Joseph Utsev, has announced.
Speaking on Wednesday in Abuja at the public presentation of the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), the minister said the high-risk communities are located in 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs) based on scientific forecasts and hydrological assessments.
The affected states, according to the minister, are: Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, including the FCT.
Prof. Utsev added that 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states face moderate flood risk, while Ekiti State is the only state not affected. A further 923 communities in 77 LGAs across 24 states fall into the low flood risk category. These states include Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara.
The minister warned of possible flash and urban flooding in major cities, including Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Ibadan and Kano. Coastal and riverine flooding is expected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo states due to rising sea levels and tidal surges.
“The AFO is not just a scientific report; it is a call to action,” Prof. Utsev said. “Early warning saves lives and reduces economic losses.”
He attributed increasing flood incidents to climate variability, rapid urbanisation, inadequate drainage infrastructure and poor land-use practices. The Federal Government, he noted, is strengthening hydrological monitoring through improved data systems, automated river gauges and advanced modelling techniques. Collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is being enhanced to improve forecast accuracy and early warning dissemination.
The minister urged state governments to integrate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development and infrastructure design, as well as to improve drainage systems, ensure effective floodplain management and strengthen community preparedness.
Earlier, President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, said flooding remains a major national challenge, with recurring incidents recorded since 2012. President Tinubu noted that his administration has initiated policies and programmes, including flood control projects, to address the persistent threat. He described the 2024 Maiduguri flood as a turning point toward proactive flood and disaster management. According to him, the Anticipatory Action initiative, led by the Office of the Vice-President, is strengthening early warning, preparedness and coordinated response.
The president described the AFO as a key planning document guiding early action, mitigation and evacuation strategies nationwide, and urged stakeholders to utilise the forecasts to protect lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure. He also emphasised the need to harness water resources to drive economic diversification and sustainable development.
Also speaking, the Director-General of NIHSA, Umar Mohammed, said the forecast was based on comprehensive, data-driven analysis of flood-prone areas. Mr Mohammed said the AFO serves as an early warning tool to support planning and coordinated disaster response nationwide. He added that the agency has upgraded its forecasting system to a hybrid AI-integrated model to improve accuracy and lead time. The Flood Dashboard now enables real-time monitoring and dissemination of alerts to stakeholders. He urged residents in vulnerable areas to heed early warnings and adopt preventive measures to reduce risks.
Mr Mohammed called for wider dissemination of the outlook to strengthen preparedness and resilience in communities. He appreciated the Federal Government and development partners for their support in the preparation of the 2026 outlook.
Goodwill messages were delivered by representatives of the World Meteorological Organisation, NiMet, NEMA, the Minister of Livestock Development, Dr Idi Maiha, and other stakeholders. (NAN)