Nigeria is poised for its biggest economic boom in at least a decade in 2026, driven by developments such as the implementation of the harmonised tax rules, the long-awaited listing of the giant Dangote Refinery, and the new capital rules for banks and insurers.
These measures are designed to strengthen public finances, unlock new growth, and reinforce the financial system’s capacity to support an economy already showing signs of faster expansion.
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One of the key turning points in Nigeria’s new fiscal era in 2026 is the implementation of the controversial tax reforms aimed at cutting off multiple taxations while boosting the country’s tax as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) from about 10 percent to 18 percent in the next three years.
While the harmonisation of the tax rules have generated heated debates and heavy criticism, Nigeria’s president Bola Tinubu said measures that came into force on June 26, 2025, alongside additional tax acts due to commence on January 1, 2026, will proceed as planned, describing the reforms as a ‘once-in-a-generation’ opportunity to rebuild the country’s fiscal framework.
Key provisions of the reforms include: the introduction of a progressive personal income tax regime, with tax rates ranging from zero percent to 25 percent, and improved deductions that support equitable burden-sharing. Individuals earning N800,000 or less annually are fully exempt from tax.
The policy also provides 20 percent rent deduction, capped at N500,000, to ease the cost of housing for employees and low-income earners.
In 2026, Nigeria’s banking industry is expected to enter a forced round of mergers and acquisitions, as lenders scramble to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation deadline in March.
The new capital rule aims to build a stronger, more resilient banking sector by significantly increasing minimum capital requirements, enabling banks to withstand economic shocks like currency devaluation.
It also seeks to support massive economic growth towards a $1 trillion economy, boost lending to key sectors like MSMEs, and foster greater financial stability and inclusion, making them global players.
In November 2025, Yemi Cardoso disclosed that 16 banks had fully complied with the recapitalisation directive. While he did not name the banks, a review by BusinessDay provides clarity. Three of the seven banks with international licences had already met the N500 billion minimum paid-up share capital requirement. They are Access Bank, GTBank, and Zenith Bank.
UBA is also expected to cross the threshold following its N157.8 billion rights issue. For FCMB, however, the situation is tighter. Despite its recently concluded N160 billion public offer, the bank remains short of the target. Even if the offer is fully subscribed, FCMB would still require about N52 billion to reach the N500 billion benchmark.
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The bank has, however, hinted at plans to divest minority stakes in some of its non-banking subsidiaries as part of efforts to bridge the gap and complete its recapitalisation programme.
Insurance companies are also racing to shore up their minimum capital in a bid to boost the sector’s viability and help it withstand any shock. However, unlike banking recapitalisation, there are nuances around the insurance recapitalisation.
The first thing to note is that insurers have a deadline of June 30, 2026, to meet the new minimum capital requirements. Then, unlike the banking recapitalisation, where equity capital had to be raised, the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) is not mandating equity to be raised.
While the injection of fresh funds through private placements, rights issues, or offer for subscription is welcome, it is not the only means. According to draft guidelines seen by BusinessDay, NAICOM notes that for existing insurers, the minimum capital requirement can be satisfied with net assets minus own shares held by the company (treasury shares).
For new insurers, the minimum capital requirement will be restricted to highly liquid and secure instruments. These include cash and bank balances, term deposits with financial institutions, government bonds, and treasury bills.
Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, said he will list his $20 billion mega refinery in 2026, a move that he said will see the 650,000 barrels per day edifice rise in market valuation in excess of $200 billion.
Dangote said the group is working with the regulators, including the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), to ensure that after listing, dividends will be paid in dollars.
The initial public offering, slated for 2026, will allow investors to purchase stakes in naira but receive returns in hard currency, a rare hedge for both local and foreign investors.
“You buy in naira, but you get dividends in dollars,” Dangote said. He stated that the payout would be funded by $6.4 billion in projected revenue from the company’s petrochemical exports, specifically polypropylene and fertiliser.
The group intends to float a 10 percent stake in the refinery and petrochemicals complex on the NGX. While international secondary listings remain an option, Dangote emphasised that the primary focus is the domestic market.
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“We want the Dangote Refinery to be the golden stock of the exchange,” he said.
That move, together with a potential listing of the state-owned oil company Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, will see the country’s stock exchange rise in valuation to about N262 trillion next year from N99.2 trillion it closed in 2025, according to Bismarck Rewane, managing director of the Financial Derivatives Company.
As part of its expansion strategy, the president said the group will be doubling the capacity of the refinery to hit 1.4 million barrels per day, compared with 650,000 barrels per day it currently produces.