Wale Edun, minister of finance, says the federal government is likely to fall short of its 2025 revenue target by about N30 trillion.
Edun made the disclosure on Tuesday in Abuja while appearing before the house of representatives committees on finance and national planning during an interactive session on the 2026–2028 medium-term expenditure framework and fiscal strategy paper.
He said the federal government projected N40.8 trillion in revenue to fund the 2025 budget but current inflows indicate that actual earnings may close at roughly N10.7 trillion.
The minister attributed the anticipated shortfall to weak oil and gas receipts, particularly petroleum profit tax and company income tax, alongside underperformance across other revenue streams.
“The current trajectory indicates that federal revenues for the full year will likely end at around N10.7 trillion, compared to the N40.8 trillion projection,” Edun said.
He said the government has nevertheless continued to meet critical obligations through what he described as prudent treasury management.
Edun said salaries, statutory transfers and domestic and foreign debt servicing were settled through “creative handling” of available resources.
He cautioned that expenditure planning must remain responsive to volatile oil revenues, warning against rigid commitments based on uncertain projections.
“We must be ambitious, but given the experience of the past two years, spending linked to these revenues must depend on the funds actually coming in,” Edun said.
Atiku Bagudu, minister of budget and national planning, said the MTEF and fiscal strategy paper were developed following extensive consultations with government institutions and private sector stakeholders.
He said the government is projecting oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day for the 2026 budget but will apply a more conservative benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day for revenue estimates.
James Faleke, chairman of the house committee on finance, urged lawmakers to apply rigorous scrutiny to avert imprudent fiscal decisions.