Consumers expressed stronger optimism about Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook in January 2026, largely driven by improvements in family income, according to the latest Consumer Expectation Survey released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The survey showed that consumer expectations stood at 11.3 index points in January 2026, reflecting growing confidence supported by anticipated improvements in family income, economic conditions and overall household financial situations.
Looking ahead, consumer optimism is projected to rise further to 16.4 index points over the next three months, on the back of expectations of better income prospects and improving macroeconomic conditions. By June 2026, the consumer outlook is expected to strengthen to 20.7 index points, indicating rising confidence about the economy, family income and personal finances.
Overall consumer sentiment continued its upward trend at the end of 2025. The CBN report showed that overall consumer sentiment rose to 4.8 index points in December 2025 from 1.9 index points in November 2025, marking the second consecutive month of optimism among respondents since May 2024. The improvement was broad-based, with the economic condition index increasing to 9.7 points in December from 6.3 points in November, signalling stronger optimism about the general economic environment.
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Household financial perceptions also improved. The family financial situation index rose from negative 10.3 points in November 2025 to negative 5.4 points in December 2025, indicating reduced pessimism about household finances. Similarly, family income sentiment improved to 10.2 index points in December from 9.8 points in the previous month, reinforcing the role of income expectations in shaping consumer confidence.
Perceptions around prices showed mild improvement, even as concerns remained. In December 2025, the consumer sentiment index regarding price changes improved to negative 1.4 points from negative 2.0 points in November, suggesting that although prices remain high, consumers believe price pressures are moderating.
However, the consumer sentiments index for the average prices of selected items stood at 25.9 points, indicating that prices are still perceived to be relatively high. Consumers viewed the prices of food and other household items as low, with an index of negative 25.3 points, while anticipating a slight increase in average prices over the next six months, reflecting expectations of gradual market adjustments.
Spending plans revealed a continued focus on essentials. Analysis of planned expenditure for December 2025 showed that food and other household items dominated expenditure preferences across all time horizons, although spending on these items is expected to slightly decline over the next three and six months. Expenditure outlook for transportation, education and electricity followed closely and is expected to increase over the next six months, pointing to rising household commitments in these areas.
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Despite the improvement in sentiment, households remained cautious about major purchases. The survey indicated a limited willingness to allocate a significant share of income to big-ticket items such as houses, cars or motor vehicles, appliances, investments and rent, as reflected by negative indices across all reviewed timeframes. In the current period, negative outlook scores were recorded for the purchase of houses at negative 63.0 points, cars or motor vehicles at negative 61.3 points, appliances and consumer durables at negative 43.5 points, investments at negative 39.6 points and rent at negative 33.7 points. While these items remain low priorities, respondents expect moderate improvement in outlook over the next six months.
The buying condition index for high-value items, including consumer durables, motor vehicles and real estate, remained below the 50.0 mark across all timeframes, indicating that many respondents do not consider it an appropriate time to invest in such assets. In the current month, buying condition indices stood at 24.5 points for consumer durables, 28.5 points for motor vehicles and 29.3 points for buildings and landed properties, reinforcing cautious consumer behaviour.
Similarly, the buying intention index for high-value items remained below the 50.0 threshold throughout the review periods. In the current period, buying intentions were recorded at 21.7 points for consumer durables, 18.1 points for motor vehicles and 17.6 points for buildings and landed properties, highlighting continued hesitation among consumers to make major purchases despite improving income expectations and overall sentiment.