Crypto market turns green, downside risk remains high

The crypto industry has shown signs of turbulence given the sales of Bitcoin in Germany and the worries surrounding significant liquidations by the creditors of the defunct exchange Mt. Gox.

However, beyond these supply overhangs lies a promising future driven by sustained risk-taking in well-established markets and advantageous macroeconomic circumstances.

Investors tend to be more willing to deploy cash to riskier, growth-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin and equities during periods of global economic expansion.

Increased appetite for risk

U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced their biggest day of net inflows in more than a month due to a collapsing cryptocurrency market. The 11 funds generated $295 million in revenue on July 8.

For the first time in the previous three trading weeks, net inflows for all funds have been positive on this day. $187.2 million was the largest daily inflow into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, which had gains of $61.5 million, came in second.

Meanwhile, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded $25.1 million in inflows on a rare day of favorable market activity. Since June 5, when the ETFs received more than $488 million in fresh capital, today is the largest day of inflows.

Over 26,200 BTC have been sent by the German government to exchanges and market makers thus far. Data from Arkham Intelligence indicates that, as of the time of writing, it still has 27,460 BTC, or $1.6 billion, in reserve.

Bitcoin dropped almost 17% to $57,200 within a month, setting off a chain reaction in meme coins, digital assets purportedly connected to artificial intelligence (AI), and other volatile areas of the cryptocurrency market. Currently, the German government owns $1.57 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, as the defunct Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox starts compensating creditors who lost their money in a 2014 breach, concerns are growing that $8.5 billion in Bitcoin may enter the market in the upcoming months. However, according to some analysts, worries about Mt. Gox’s Bitcoin sales might be exaggerated.

Over the past two trading weeks, the price of Bitcoin has plummeted; on July 5, it fell as low as $53,600, marking the first time since February that the commodity has traded below $54K.

Bitcoin’s outlook

The general view is still more pessimistic, with the possibility of another decline before consolidation for a few months and then another uptick in Q4.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had rebounded to $57,200 from a low of $54,300 during the Monday AM Asian trading session.

On the downside, there is support at $51,500, but a move upward would have to overcome resistance levels at $60,000.

Furthermore, the US inflation data set for release could add to the already erratic cryptocurrency markets.



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