Nigeria’s inflation could slow to a single digit by January 2026 as the lag effect of ‘Detty December’ is poised to further cool prices that have remained in the double digit range for more than five years, according to Ayo Teriba, the chief executive officer of Economic Associates.
Teriba projects that prices could ease to about 12 percent in December 2025 compared to about 33 percent it stood in the same period last year, noting that the cooling inflation was more of a lag effect than the rebasing exercise conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this the year.
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“The steep deceleration in YOY inflation from 33% in December 2024 to 24.48%, in January 2025 was not the as a result of rebasing but the lagged effect of Detty December as steep retail price cuts continued into January and indeed less steeply to the rest of the year to the detriment of large retail chain stores that are now known to be closing down one after the other,” Teriba said in a statement published on BusinessDay on Friday.
“This explains the -5.2 month on month deceleration in January 2025. This effect should repeat in January 2026 to push year on year inflation into single digits, where it will remain for the rest of 2026. We predict that the deceleration Detty December should repeat to bring YOY inflation to about 12% in December 2025.”
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Nigeria is experiencing a shift in its economic trajectory as inflation has been on the downward trend from the beginning of the year except for March where it failed to slow. Prices have now cooled for the seventh straight month to about 16 percent in October 2025.
That’s a noticeable recovery compared to last year when prices hit the roof to a near three decade high after President Bola Tinubu immediately phased out fuel subsidies and floated the naira, a twin policy that ballooned prices but now restoring stability in Africa’s most populous economy.
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Teriba noted that Nigería is finally experiencing a return to economic calm for the first time since 2019/2020, urging the NBS to stay committed to communicating clearer data that would help restore confidence and decision-making as month-on-month data for January 2025 remains elusive.
“Never in recent memory has the NBS’ rebasing produced this level of ambiguity. The remedy is straightforward: publish the missing month-on-month figure for January 2025 and clarify the December 2024 index value,” Teriba said.
“Complete and coherent data will eliminate guesswork, restore analytical clarity and allow policy, business and investment decisions to be based on facts rather than speculations.”