Africa’s economy could expand to as much as $5.23 trillion by 2035, up from a baseline projection of $4.23 trillion, if the continent successfully deploys artificial intelligence to raise productivity and unlock new growth pathways, according to a new report by the African Development Bank (AfDB).
The report, Africa’s AI Productivity Gain: Pathways to Labour Efficiency, Economic Growth and Inclusive Transformation, estimates that AI could generate an additional $1 trillion in GDP over the next decade, representing nearly one-third of Africa’s current economic output.
“Africa’s economic future will not only be shaped by how fast it grows but by how productively it uses its people, capital, and ideas,” the report stated, describing AI as a generational opportunity to shift from incremental gains to exponential outcomes.
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Under the AfDB’s baseline scenario, Africa continues on a path of gradual reform and steady investment, reaching $4.23 trillion by 2035. While stable, the report argues this trajectory “is not transformative” and fails to fully absorb the continent’s expanding labour force or unlock underused productivity across key sectors.
By contrast, the AI-enabled scenario assumes coordinated progress in digital infrastructure, skills development, data governance, trust frameworks, and capital mobilisation.
If these conditions are met, AfDB projects Africa’s economy could rise to $5.23 trillion, delivering what it terms a “realistic and attainable” AI dividend rather than a speculative forecast.
“The AI dividend is not given, but it is attainable with concerted effort and coordination,” the report noted, emphasising that technology alone will not deliver growth without policy alignment and institutional capacity.
Beyond GDP expansion, the AfDB links the AI-driven growth path to 35–40 million net new digital and digitally enabled jobs, alongside US$150 billion in additional annual tax revenues by 2035. These fiscal gains, the report says, could be channelled into “classrooms, hospitals, and small businesses across the continent.”
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The report identifies five sectors, including agriculture and food systems, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, finance and financial inclusion, and health and life sciences, as the primary engines of AI-enabled growth.
Together, it said they are projected to capture 58 percent of the total AI dividend, or roughly US$580 billion, by 2035.
The bank added that agriculture alone could account for $200 billion, as AI improves decision-making across farming, logistics, insurance, and access to finance.
“Rather than replacing labour, AI augments decision-making and sharpens resource allocation,” the report says, particularly in labour-intensive sectors that dominate African employment.
Wholesale and retail trade could see a $140 billion uplift, driven by demand forecasting, inventory optimisation, and embedded finance for informal merchants, many of whom are women. Manufacturing, finance, and health together account for an additional $240 billion, reflecting AI’s ability to improve efficiency, reduce waste, and expand service access.
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Central to capturing this opportunity is what AfDB describes as the “AI Readiness Flywheel, built on five interconnected enablers: data, compute infrastructure, skills, trust, and capital. “No single enabler can succeed in isolation,” the report warns, adding that delays beyond 2030 risk “locking African systems out of the foundational wave of global AI evolution” .
Africa’s potential share of the global AI dividend is modelled at 4 percent of an estimated $25 trillion global uplift by 2035. AfDB describes this as a “fair-share scenario” that reflects productivity catch-up rather than parity with advanced economies.
The report noted that with a direct call to policymakers, investors, and development partners. “The dividend is within reach. The roadmap is actionable. The time to act is now,” it said, warning that fragmented action could deepen digital and economic inequalities rather than close them.