The World Bank has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.4% for 2027, signalling sustained optimism about the country’s medium-term outlook despite lingering structural challenges.
This is according to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, which aligns with the projection earlier published in its Nigeria Development Update (NDU) in October 2025.
The Bretton Woods Institution also upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.4%, up from the 3.7% forecast contained in its June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, reflecting improving macroeconomic conditions.
What the World Bank is saying
The World Bank expects Nigeria’s economy to grow at 4.4% in both 2026 and 2027, marking what it described as the country’s fastest growth pace in over a decade.
According to the report, this expansion will be driven primarily by sustained growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the bank noted.
The Bank added that continued expansion in services and improved agricultural output would remain the key pillars supporting economic performance over the forecast period.
The World Bank noted that ongoing economic reforms—particularly within the tax system—combined with prudent monetary policy, are expected to support economic activity and strengthen macroeconomic stability.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity”
These policy measures, the Bank said, should help to “improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance,” the World Bank said.
Why this matter
The sustained emphasis on non-oil growth highlights the gradual impact of Nigeria’s economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing reliance on crude oil exports.
A stronger services sector and improved agricultural output could help create jobs, stabilise prices, and broaden the government’s revenue base over time.
For investors and policymakers, the World Bank’s forecast provides a measure of confidence that recent reforms may begin to yield tangible results, even as the country continues to navigate economic vulnerabilities.
What you should know
- The World Bank also projected that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen to 4.3% in 2026, supported by economic reforms, resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation across the region.
- Globally, the Bank expects the world economy to remain resilient, with growth easing slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in 2027—an upward revision from its June forecast.
- The improved global outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, even as geopolitical and climate-related risks remain elevated.
- Nairametrics earlier reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46% year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2024, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).