Osun politics from the beginning has always been full of drama. What I noticed in the current exchanges appears strange. I know some will disagree with me. Yet, the unmistakable conclusion is that there is desire for political solution from both sides and camps.
Both camps are tired and weary. I watched the body language of top APC leaders from national to local level. Actions and even inactions confirm loss of confidence in their ability to win Osun. Beyond the bravado and the boasts, the core APC caucus seems to actually want a political solution. Yes, there is an unspoken signal for consensus which the Adelekes are not picking.
Let me put it more clearly. President Tinubu and his men including the much vilified Gboyega Oyetola have shown sufficient olive branch to the Accord camp. I repeat that the APC has been fair enough. I will explain in detail and I will also prove that the Adelekes have not been flexible enough.
First concession was the fact that Minister Oyetola is not seeking a return to office. This may look insignificant but is a very potent sign that hard presidential involvement is not likely in the Osun race. The APC expected a reward for this significant decision but felt slighted as the attacks on Oyetola continued unabated. Another concession was the way and manners the APC primary in Osun was conducted. Am I the only one seeing a deliberate ploy to concede Osun to the Adelekes if the governor is smart enough?
Why would any political leader interested in winning a state acted like that? It is not normal or usual. There is open evidence that the core APC wants the Adelekes to play ball, to re-engage with Tinubu and Oyetola. Still the Adelekes failed to get the message. While the Adelekes are heady, the Oyetola camp is even more stubborn.
EGO QUESTION BETWEEN ADELEKE AND OYETOLA
There is an ego question at play between the governor and Mr Oyetola. Both men carry political wounds. Yet as at today, both men remain powerful. And none is ready to bow to the other. I repeat that both men are powerful. The governor is an incumbent with wealth and strong public goodwill at his call and beck. Oyetola is a presidential Cabal leader with potent sayings in national affairs. Who bow first? The governor who is seeking re-election or the Minister with a powerful blood uncle as president?
Both men are displaying their capacities. Mr Governor has proved to the world that if an election is to be held today, he would defeat any opposition candidate. In this age of social media, the public attests to the governor’s popularity as confirmed during Iwo Day celebration, the Iwude Ijesa carnival, the street parade at Osogbo, the endorsement by the labour movement and open backing by artisans, farmers and other segments of the population. The governor parades strong credentials in terms of sectoral performance which earns him cross platforms support.
Oyetola on the other hand is deploying federal forces to make the state ungovernable. The local government is crippled with the withholding of Local government allocations for almost a year now. The plot appears to be designed to financially squeeze the Adelekes and thereby turn the public against the popular state governor. Other federal influences are being deployed to ensure the governor is rendered impotent and severely weakened before the August elections. The tactic is really hurting the state and gradually boxing the governor into a corner.
For the governor, his popularity rating among the people is growing on a daily basis. But for how long can he sustain his government without funding? How long can he hold onto the mass support of the workers and other segments of the society if the government cannot meet its financial obligations?
For Mr Oyetola, the strangulation tactics are creating strong backlash against the APC among the citizenry. While the approach may be making life difficult for the state government, it is worsening the unpopularity of Mr Oyetola and the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji. It may even be difficult for the APC to hold state rallies without being stoned in many parts of the state.
POLITICAL SOLUTION
In this quagmire and cul-de-sac, it is imperative for both sides to seek a political solution. Osun is in need of intervention by well meaning national elders to create a political consensus and stop the gradual deterioration of relationship in the state. Both the governor and Oyetola must meet and talk. The duo must meet face to face to create a win-win political situation for Osun state.
The current local government confusion can be resolved through negotiation. The template for peace can be developed and crafted on the basis of give and take. The solution will be political, not a legalistic one that is leading to no where. The details won’t be comfortable for both parties but both sides have to make tough sacrifices.
First, is the recognition of both set of local government executives by the state government. Yes, such recognition will mean both the APC and the PDP local government chairmen and councillors are accepted under political considerations. While it will be taken that that rhe tenure of the APC team has lapsed, that of the PDP will be adjudged to have commenced from.the February date of their swearing in.
Secondly, the APC Yes/No chairmen will be paid for their tenure alongside all their entitled allowances. Those elected in February of this year will also enjoy their pavements.This is a win win political solution.
The Third leg of the political solution is the authorisation by the office of the Accountant General of the Federation for the February elected council leadership and relevant directors at the local government to open local government accounts at the Osogbo branch of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The AGF office will then pay the accumulated local government allocations into those accounts in line with the ruling of rhe Supreme Court. Necessary deductions can then be made within the financial system to the state government for expenses borne by the state government since February.
All pending cases in court are to be withdrawn by both sides. The local government staff will resume and there will be no penalty for previous conduct among the staffers.
Immediately the above are agreed and accepted by both sides, there should be cessation of hostility. Media war and proxy fight need to stop to heal wounds. This will stop the deepening hatred for Mr Oyetola and the APC. It will also ease the burden on the governor and allow him to deliver on his governance agenda.
The seventh leg will be a political consensus agreement between the Accord and the APC about free and fair conduct of rhe 2026 guber elections. This is necessary as Adeleke had once endorsed Presirnt Bola Tinubu for 2027. Also this will build on the reality on ground in Osun that the APC cannot win against the incumbent come 2026.
Last but not the least is the putting in place of panel of eminent citizens to ensure faithful implementation. This template is in the best interest of the Presidency, the state governor and all stakeholders. Unless this template is accepted by all parties, Osun will be a terrible battleground in thw 2026 state election.