China’s imports of Venezuelan oil are expected to decline starting February, following a sharp drop in tankers leaving the OPEC producer after the U.S. asserted control over the country, according to traders and analysts.
The decline follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s December blockade on vessels transporting sanctioned Venezuelan crude. The move was part of a broader campaign against President Nicolas Maduro that included a U.S. military operation resulting in Maduro’s capture.
Since the blockade, five Venezuelan-linked tankers have been seized, prompting shipowners to reroute or return vessels to Venezuelan waters to avoid confiscation. About a dozen tankers initially left Venezuela with their tracking transponders turned off, but most returned after Caracas’ interim government negotiated a 50 million-barrel oil supply agreement with Washington.
Three tankers carrying roughly 3 million barrels of fuel oil and 2 million barrels of Merey heavy crude continue toward Asia, with expected arrival in China by late February. Analysts say this represents around 166,000 barrels per day, a sharp decline from the 642,000 bpd average exported to China in 2025.
Despite the slowdown, Chinese refiners are not immediately affected, having built significant inventories last year. Estimates suggest between 43 million and 52 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are in transit to Asia, providing temporary relief for China’s refineries.
Independent Chinese refiners, known as teapots, are expected to be the most affected by the disruption, as they have historically been the largest buyers of Venezuelan crude. Some teapots already have orders in place for March and April cargoes shipped before the blockade.
Trading houses such as Trafigura and Vitol have begun marketing Venezuelan crude under U.S. guidelines, targeting Indian refiners and China’s state major CNPC for March deliveries. Analysts predict Chinese teapots may have to turn to alternative sources like Canada’s Cold Lake and Access Western Blend in the second quarter.
Venezuelan crude, particularly Merey and fuel oil, is primarily processed into bitumen by Chinese teapots. For several years, traders have rebranded Venezuelan oil as Malaysian or Brazilian cargo to bypass U.S. sanctions.
The overall impact on China’s crude imports remains limited, as Venezuelan oil accounts for about 4% of the country’s total seaborne crude supply. However, uncertainties around the blockade have created logistical and pricing challenges for smaller refiners reliant on Venezuelan grades.
The situation underscores the growing influence of U.S. sanctions on global energy flows and the vulnerability of Asian refiners to geopolitical shifts in Venezuela.