The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau has revealed a sharp decline in America’s imports of Nigerian goods, falling by 41 per cent in July 2025 amid rising trade tensions and uncertainty over new tariff measures.
According to the figures, U.S. imports from Nigeria dropped from $638.6 million in June 2025 to $378.8 million in July 2025, the steepest one-month contraction in two years.
Exports from the United States to Nigeria also weakened, declining from $918.9 million in June to $584.4 million in July, indicating that both sides experienced a slowdown in bilateral trade.
Despite the monthly decline, data covering January to July 2025 showed that the United States exported goods worth $3.92 billion to Nigeria while importing $3.14 billion, leaving a year-to-date trade surplus of $781 million in Washington’s favour.
The July plunge, however, highlights the fragility of Nigeria’s export position in the U.S. market at a time of policy friction and weak global demand.
Tariff Uncertainty and Policy Recalibration
The fall coincided with a late-July executive order signed by President Donald Trump, which raised tariffs on selected African exports from 14 per cent to 15 per cent under his “reciprocal tariff regime.”
The measure is designed to balance U.S. trade accounts with countries that maintain persistent surpluses against the United States.
While crude oil, the backbone of Nigeria’s exports, has been largely exempt from the new duties, the uncertainty surrounding implementation has dampened U.S. import demand for non-oil products, including agricultural produce, solid minerals, and manufactured goods.
Trade analysts said the abrupt tariff hike and the absence of clear exemptions for several product categories created uncertainty for American buyers and Nigerian exporters alike.
“The sudden policy shift injected hesitation into existing contracts and discouraged new orders,” said a Lagos-based trade researcher. “Even where tariffs were marginal, the administrative uncertainty made buyers delay shipments.”
Structural Headwinds Weigh on Exports
Beyond tariffs, market dynamics have also played a role. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the naira and other emerging-market currencies has raised costs for Nigerian exporters, while higher freight, insurance, and compliance charges have eroded competitiveness in key sectors.
With Nigeria’s refined product exports still limited and industrial diversification lagging, the country remains heavily reliant on crude and energy-related sales.
Reduced refinery runs and subdued energy demand in the U.S. market have further constrained Nigeria’s export receipts.
At the same time, the expiration risk of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — which grants many African goods tariff-free access to the U.S. — has added to uncertainty for non-oil sectors such as textiles and agriculture.
Nigeria’s Response and Strategic Pivot
Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, said the government would not resort to retaliatory measures but would continue implementing reforms to strengthen domestic production and expand regional market access.
“Nigeria remains responsive; we are not reacting,” she said. “We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and deepen trade within Africa under the AfCFTA framework.”
Her remarks align with recent trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that Nigeria’s intra-African trade rose by ₦610 billion in the first half of 2025, reaching ₦4.82 trillion compared with ₦4.21 trillion in the same period of 2024.
The expansion signals a gradual pivot toward African markets as U.S. demand softens and trade frictions mount. Exports within Africa are now providing a partial cushion against declining shipments to the U.S. and Europe.
Wider Economic Implications
Economists note that while the U.S. market remains strategically important for Nigeria, the country’s growing exposure to African and Asian partners could help reduce its vulnerability to external shocks.
“Diversification is no longer a policy slogan but a survival strategy,” said an Abuja-based economist. “With Western demand under pressure and currency volatility eroding dollar returns, Nigeria’s best opportunity lies in regional integration and value-added exports.”
However, the short-term effects are less encouraging. The decline in U.S. imports has trimmed Nigeria’s foreign-exchange earnings and compounded the challenge of defending the naira.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has relied on higher crude receipts and export diversification to stabilise external reserves, but persistent trade distortions and tightening U.S. policy may reduce dollar inflows in the coming quarters.
Outlook
Trade experts expect August and September data to provide clearer signals on whether the July slump was a temporary shock or the start of a sustained downward trend. Much will depend on how U.S. tariff policies evolve and whether Nigeria can accelerate exports under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
For now, analysts agree that July’s 41 per cent drop is a warning signal. Nigeria’s traditional trade surplus with the United States — once a symbol of export strength — has narrowed sharply, while the pace of recovery in global energy markets remains uncertain.
If tariffs persist and AGOA expires without renewal, the structure of Nigeria’s export markets could shift permanently, reinforcing the ongoing pivot toward Africa and intra-continental trade partnerships.