President Bola Tinubu’s approval rating has fallen to 30.2 percent, with nearly half of Nigerians expressing dissatisfaction with his administration as worsening household economic conditions continue to shape public sentiment despite signs of macroeconomic recovery, a new nationwide survey has found.
The survey, conducted by Eagle Badger Data Analytics (EBDA) to mark the president’s third year in office, showed that 47.5 percent of respondents disapprove of Tinubu’s performance, while 18 percent remained neutral and 4.4 percent declined to respond.
The findings represent a deterioration from the polling firm’s mid-year survey conducted a year earlier, when approval ratings were seven percentage points higher and disapproval levels four percentage points lower.
According to the report, Nigerians’ perception of their personal economic situation over the past three years emerged as the strongest determinant of their assessment of the government, outweighing all other factors measured.
“The most important finding in this survey is not the approval figure,” said Sharon Orisakwe, managing director of EBDA. “It is the strength of the link between economic experience and public sentiment. Until that experience improves at the household level, sentiment is unlikely to move, whatever the aggregate indicators show.”
The nationwide survey was conducted through telephone interviews in respondents’ preferred languages using proportionate stratified random sampling across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.
The survey revealed stark regional differences in public sentiment toward the administration.
Approval ratings were strongest in the North East at 39.2 percent and stood at 37 percent in both the South West and North West. The North Central recorded a 30.3 percent approval rating.
By contrast, support was weakest in the South East and South South, where approval ratings stood at 16.5 percent and 13.5 percent respectively. Disapproval reached 62.9 percent in the South East and 59.8 percent in the South South.
The survey also found intense opposition in both regions, with nearly half of respondents in the South East and South South registering strong disapproval of the administration.
Age-based analysis showed that respondents aged 56 years and above in the South West were the only demographic group to record net positive approval. Working-age Nigerians, who face the greatest exposure to rising living costs, reported significantly higher levels of dissatisfaction.
For the first time, EBDA asked respondents whether their economic circumstances had improved or worsened since Tinubu assumed office in May 2023.
The results showed widespread economic distress. About 62 percent of respondents said they were worse off than three years ago, while only 23.3 percent reported being better off.
The findings were particularly pronounced in the South East, where 78.5 percent said their economic condition had deteriorated, and in the South South, where 75.5 percent reported being worse off.
Nationally, 42.4 percent said they were “much worse off,” compared with a small minority who said they were “much better off.”
The survey found a near-linear relationship between economic wellbeing and political approval. Among respondents who said their situation had become much worse, 73.2 percent disapproved of Tinubu’s performance. Conversely, among those who reported being somewhat better off, 70.7 percent approved of the administration.
“The zonal and economic cross-tabulations tell you where sentiment is concentrated and what is shaping it,” Orisakwe said. “That second question is the one policymakers should care about.”
Recovery yet to reach households
The survey comes at a time when several macroeconomic indicators have shown signs of improvement.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has declined significantly from its peak of 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 15.7 percent by April 2026. Economic growth has accelerated above 4 percent, while the naira has strengthened from around N1,740 per dollar to about N1,370.
Despite those gains, many Nigerians continue to report worsening living conditions.
According to EBDA, the disconnect reflects the difference between macroeconomic stabilisation and household purchasing power.
While inflation has slowed, prices remain substantially higher than they were three years ago. The report noted that the overall price level has risen by roughly 80 percent since May 2023, while food prices have increased by more than 90 percent.
Staple foods remain significantly more expensive. A bag of rice that sold for about N35,000 in mid-2023 now costs around N80,000, according to the report.
Although the national minimum wage was increased from N30,000 to N70,000 during the period, households have also faced sharp increases in transport and energy costs following fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms.
The report pointed to three major factors behind the gap between improving macroeconomic data and public sentiment.
First, sectors driving growth such as oil, telecommunications and finance, employ a relatively small share of the workforce, limiting the direct benefits to many Nigerians. Second, insecurity continues to affect agricultural production, rural trade and household incomes. Third, economic losses are often felt more sharply than gains, particularly in regions where living standards have deteriorated from previously higher levels.
“The macro numbers are real, and the household numbers are real,” Orisakwe said. “They measure different things. The policy task is not to choose between them but to close the distance between them.”
Global trend of falling incumbency support
EBDA noted that declining approval ratings are not unique to Nigeria and mirror broader global trends.