Petrol prices have continued to climb across major Nigerian cities following a temporary suspension of product supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The disruption has tightened market availability and prompted private depot owners to raise wholesale prices, creating renewed volatility in the downstream sector.
Market data from Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt showed average pump prices ranging between ₦900 and ₦1,000 per litre, up from roughly ₦750 a few weeks earlier.
Depot operators were reported to have adjusted ex-depot prices to between ₦875 and ₦900 per litre, reflecting higher replacement costs and speculative pricing behaviour amid limited supply.
Industry operators confirmed that the Dangote Refinery, which recently began large-scale distribution of petrol, has temporarily halted loading operations to resolve internal logistics and crude-feedstock constraints.
The facility currently accounts for an estimated half of Nigeria’s total gasoline demand, making any supply interruption immediately visible at the pump.
Independent marketers say the refinery’s pause has left a vacuum now filled by private depot owners setting prices without coordination.
The situation, they explained, has amplified cost pressures throughout the value chain and eroded retailer margins. Some operators have turned to import alternatives despite the elevated cost of foreign exchange, further straining liquidity in the system.
The latest market movement has revived debate over pricing transparency and competitive discipline within Nigeria’s deregulated fuel market.
Analysts argue that without a uniform ex-refinery benchmark, depot operators can adjust margins arbitrarily, leaving retail marketers with little leverage to negotiate or plan.
Officials of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) acknowledged the supply gap but described it as temporary. They said Dangote Refinery is expected to resume full truck and coastal loading soon, after which a revised pricing template would guide downstream players.
Industry participants also cited ongoing discussions with the refinery to harmonise loading schedules and product allocation across marketing groups.
Energy analysts observed that Dangote Refinery’s pricing model is being restructured to include both coastal loading for bulk shipments and truck delivery for inland distribution, signalling a gradual shift from the earlier free-delivery system. They said the new approach aims to improve efficiency but will require coordination with marketers to prevent regional shortages.
In the meantime, retail station operators continue to face pressure from rising depot costs, transportation expenses, and weak consumer demand. Many outlets in urban centres have limited daily volumes to manage losses, while others have adjusted operating hours to reduce overheads.
Stakeholders in the petroleum products retail association described the development as part of the “realignment phase” of Nigeria’s post-subsidy market. They noted that consistent refinery operation and open competition among suppliers are essential to restoring price stability.
The current volatility also underscores the importance of developing adequate national storage and distribution infrastructure.
Analysts maintain that reliance on a single refinery for half of national supply exposes the market to periodic shocks. They recommend a coordinated framework involving the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), NNPC Trading, and private marketers to maintain steady nationwide supply.
At the close of the week, retail petrol prices averaged ₦950 per litre, while diesel traded around ₦1,250 per litre. Market watchers expect prices to ease once Dangote Refinery resumes normal loading and ex-refinery benchmarks are communicated to depot operators.
Until then, downstream participants remain cautious, with most marketers balancing between volatile supply costs and the need to sustain operations in a highly price-sensitive environment.