Crude oil prices traded within a narrow range on Monday as investors reacted to the limited impact of the European Union’s latest sanctions on Russian oil exports and persistent concerns over U.S. tariffs on global trade.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, fell by 20 cents or 0.3% to $69.08 per barrel as of noon in Nigeria, following a 0.35% decline in the previous session. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased by 6 cents or 0.1% to $67.28 after losing 0.3% on Friday.
On Friday, the European Union announced its 18th sanctions package against Russia over the ongoing war in Ukraine, which included measures targeting India’s Nayara Energy, a refiner and exporter of Russian-origin oil products.
However, analysts and market participants indicated that the new sanctions were unlikely to materially alter oil supply dynamics.
Harry Tchiliguirian, head of commodity research at Onyx Capital Group, stated that “the latest round of EU sanctions aren’t necessarily going to change the oil balance,” attributing market indifference to Russia’s ability to navigate restrictions.
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed similar sentiments, noting that the Russian economy has developed a degree of “immunity” to Western-imposed sanctions.
In the United States, trade-related uncertainty also weighed on sentiment. President Donald Trump had recently warned of possible sanctions against buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace agreement within 50 days.
Meanwhile, new U.S. tariffs on imports from the European Union are set to take effect on August 1. Despite this, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he remained optimistic about reaching a trade deal with the bloc.
Analysts at ING noted that the most impactful element of the EU sanctions may be the ban on refined oil products made from Russian crude in third countries, but cautioned that enforcement could prove difficult.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore of IG commented that “tariff concerns will continue to weigh in the lead up to the August 1 deadline,” adding that oil prices may find some support from inventory data if supply remains tight.
Meanwhile, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. fell by two last week to 422, the lowest level since September 2021, according to data from Baker Hughes.
Geopolitical developments also remained in focus. Iran, another oil producer under Western sanctions, is expected to resume nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul this week. A failure to reengage in negotiations could lead to renewed sanctions pressure.
Since the June 24 ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict, Brent crude has been trading in a narrow band between $66.34 and $71.53 per barrel.
The current market outlook suggests that oil may continue to oscillate within the $64 to $70 range, barring significant geopolitical or supply shocks.