Oil prices declined on Monday as crude loadings resumed at Russia’s key Black Sea export hub following a temporary suspension.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, lost 53 cents or 0.82% to trade at $63.86 per barrel at 05:23 a.m., while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 56 cents or 0.93% to $59.53 per barrel.
The two benchmarks gained over 2% on Friday after loadings at Novorossiysk and a neighbouring Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal were halted, temporarily affecting the equivalent of 2% of global oil supply.
Industry sources and LSEG data confirmed that Novorossiysk resumed exports on Sunday, easing immediate supply concerns. However, investors remain cautious over potential disruptions as Ukraine continues attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
Ukraine’s military reported strikes on Russia’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries over the weekend. Analysts say prolonged attacks may constrain Moscow’s export capacity.
“Investors are trying to gauge how Ukraine’s attacks will affect Russia’s crude exports in the long term, while also locking in profits after last Friday’s rally,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, Analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
Tazawa added that overall perception of oversupply following recent OPEC+ production increases continues to pressure the market, with WTI expected to hover around $60 per barrel within a $5 trading band.
The United States recently imposed sanctions banning deals with Russian oil producers Lukoil and Rosneft after November 21, increasing uncertainty around trade flows.
President Donald Trump also confirmed Republicans are preparing legislation to sanction any country doing business with Russia, and suggested Iran may be added to the list.
OPEC+ in early November approved an additional 137,000 barrels per day output increase for December, matching its pace for October and November. The alliance plans to pause increases in Q1 2026 if market conditions weaken.
ING research forecasts the oil market will remain in a large surplus through 2026, although supply risks remain elevated due to Ukraine’s stepped-up drone attacks and Iran’s seizure of a tanker in the Gulf of Oman — a route responsible for about 20 million barrels per day of global flows.
Meanwhile, hedge funds and money managers expanded their net long positions in ICE Brent by 12,636 lots to 164,867 lots last week as participants cut short positions amid supply-side uncertainty.
U.S. output indicators also hinted at near-term supply growth as the Baker Hughes rig count showed an increase of three rigs to 417 for the week ended November 14.
As global markets assess supply volatility and shifting geopolitical risks, analysts say crude prices may remain constrained in the short term, with bearish fundamentals outweighing bullish disruptions.