Oil prices gained on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to raise output by a modest 137,000 barrels per day.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, climbed above $65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $62 following the group’s weekend decision.
The restrained production boost came in well below earlier market projections and reports suggesting that OPEC+ could adopt a far more aggressive increase.
Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone Group, said the move “is clearly on the light side of expectations,” noting that prices rebounded as traders unwound positions built in anticipation of a larger hike.
However, Weston cautioned that the modest increase “will do no favors to the notion of an oversupplied market in 2026,” suggesting the current rally could face an upper limit as market balances continue to shift.
Crude prices have declined this year amid growing concerns that global supply could soon outpace demand. Brent fell by about 8 percent last week alone, extending a series of losses tied to expectations of softer consumption and rising inventories.
International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast a record annual surplus for 2026, while several Wall Street banks expect additional downward pressure on prices in the coming months.
The OPEC+ decision came after a brief meeting that reportedly lasted just nine minutes, despite differing positions among leading members Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Sources said Moscow favored smaller adjustments to defend prices, while Riyadh leaned toward a higher output increase to protect market share.
OPEC+ has been gradually unwinding pandemic-era production cuts in recent quarters to recover market share from non-member producers.
Yet, actual supply additions have consistently fallen short of headline commitments, as infrastructure and capacity challenges persist across several member states.
Analysts at Rystad Energy said global balances have shifted “decisively into surplus after a period of tightness that began in mid-2024 through 2025,” adding that “supply is only moving in one direction, and with demand weakening, the remainder of 2025 will be a one-two punch for crude prices.”
The latest decision underscores OPEC+’s balancing act between price stability and market influence. While the restrained output rise offered short-term relief to traders, analysts expect ongoing volatility as the market adjusts to signs of easing demand and increasing inventories in the months ahead.