Oil prices edged lower on Monday as ample global supply outweighed geopolitical concerns following the United States’ detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.
Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian crude oil is priced, slipped 21 cents, or 0.4 percent to $60.54 a barrel in early trade, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 28 cents, or 0.5 percent to $57.04 a barrel. Prices were volatile in early Asian trading, briefly recovering before turning lower again as investors assessed the implications of political developments in the OPEC member nation.
Market participants said the muted price reaction reflected confidence in near-term supply availability. Despite heightened political uncertainty in Venezuela, analysts noted that global oil markets remain well supplied, limiting the immediate impact of potential export disruptions.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would maintain its embargo on Venezuelan oil following Maduro’s detention in New York, adding that the United States could take further action if cooperation was not forthcoming.
However, industry assessments indicated that Venezuela’s oil production and refining infrastructure were not damaged during the operation.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said risks to oil prices from Venezuela remain ambiguous and modest in the short term, depending largely on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves.
The bank kept its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged, citing sufficient spare supply across the global market.
At the same time, officials aligned with Maduro rejected the U.S. action and signalled continuity in governance, a factor analysts said could limit immediate changes to Venezuela’s oil exports.
By contrast, strategists at JPMorgan warned that a regime change in Venezuela could represent a significant upside risk to global oil supply over the medium to long term, potentially adding substantial volumes to the market.
RBC Capital Markets also noted that full sanctions relief could unlock several hundred thousand barrels per day of additional Venezuelan production, although any such shift would likely take time and depend on political outcomes.
Elsewhere, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to maintain output levels, reinforcing the view that supply conditions remain comfortable.
Traders are also monitoring developments in other geopolitical hotspots, including Iran and broader U.S. policy signals in Latin America, though analysts said these risks have yet to translate into sustained price support.
For now, oil markets appear focused on fundamentals, with sufficient supply and steady output policy tempering the impact of geopolitical shocks.