Nigeria’s inflation trajectory showed a notable improvement in October 2025, with the headline inflation rate easing to 16.05%, a significant decline from the 18.02% recorded in September 2025.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which released the latest figures on Monday, noted that the year-on-year headline inflation rate stood at 17.82%, lower than the 33.88% recorded in October 2024.
According to the Bureau, this indicates that headline inflation decreased compared to the same month last year, though based on a different base year (November 2009).
The NBS further explained: “On a month-on-month basis, the Headline inflation rate in October 2025 was 0.93%, which was 0.21% higher than the rate recorded in September 2025 (0.72%). This means that in October 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in September 2025.”
Rural vs urban inflation
According to the NBS, the urban inflation rate in October 2025 stood at 15.65%, representing a 20.73 percentage-point decline from the 36.38% recorded in October 2024. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation rose to 1.14% in October 2025, an increase of 0.40% compared to 0.74% in September 2025.
The Bureau added that the twelve-month average urban inflation rate was 22.68% in October 2025, which is 11.84 percentage points lower than the 34.52% reported in October 2024.
For rural inflation, the NBS reported a year-on-year rate of 15.86% in October 2025—15.73 percentage points lower than the 31.59% recorded in October 2024. Month-on-month, rural inflation moderated to 0.45%, a decline of 0.22% from 0.67% in September 2025.
The twelve-month average rural inflation rate stood at 20.81% in October 2025, down by 9.42 percentage points compared to the 30.24% recorded in October 2024.
Food inflation
The food inflation rate in October 2025 stood at 13.12% on a year-on-year basis, representing a 26.04 percentage-point decline from the 39.16% recorded in October 2024. The NBS noted that the significant drop in the annual food inflation figure is largely due to the change in the base year.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation printed at -0.37% in October 2025, an increase of 1.21% compared to the -1.57% recorded in September 2025.
According to the NBS, the upward movement in the monthly figure was driven by increases in the average prices of several food items, including fresh onions, oranges, pineapples, shrimp, unshelled groundnuts, vegetables such as ugu and okazi leaf, and various types of meat such as goat meat, cow tail, and liver.
The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending October 2025 was 21.96%, which is 16.16 percentage points lower than the 38.12% recorded in October 2024.
NBS data confirms Nairametrics’ forecast
The latest data confirms Nairametrics’ earlier forecast that the October inflation rate would likely settle within the 16.20% to 17.76% range, down from 18.02% in September.
Analysts who spoke to Nairametrics attributed the anticipated moderation to easing food inflation, improved foreign exchange conditions, and favourable supply dynamics across key commodities.
They noted that the decline in the October inflation rate resulted from several factors, including moderating food prices, increased forex stability, and more stable energy costs.