Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 18.02% in September 2025, marking a decline from 20.12% recorded in August 2025.
This is according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the headline inflation rate stood at 0.72%, reflecting a moderation in price increases across key sectors.
This means, according to NBS, that in September 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in August 2025.
“This shows that the Headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in September 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., September 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100,” NBS stated.
Urban vs Rural inflation trends
According to the NBS report, in September 2025, the urban inflation rate was 17.50% which is 17.63% points low-er compared to the 35.13% recorded in September 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate stood at 0.74% in September 2025, representing an increase of 0.25 percentage points from 0.49% recorded in August 2025.
The corresponding twelve-month average for urban inflation was 24.35% in September 2025, which is 9.6 percentage points lower than the 33.95% recorded in September 2024.
The rural inflation rate stood at 18.26% in September 2025 on a year-on-year basis, representing a decrease of 12.23 percentage points from 30.49% recorded in September 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation was 0.67% in September 2025, reflecting a decline of 0.71 percentage points from 1.38% recorded in August 2025.
The twelve-month average for rural inflation was 22.08% in September 2025, 7.68 percentage points lower than the 29.76% recorded in September 2024.
Food inflation
The food inflation rate stood at 16.87% in September 2025 on a year-on-year basis, representing a sharp decline of 20.9 percentage points from 37.77% recorded in September 2024. The significant drop in the annual food inflation figure is largely attributed to a change in the base year, which has adjusted comparative estimates.
The decline was driven by a reduction in the average prices of key food items such as maize (corn) grains, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper, among others.
On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the food inflation rate also showed a notable improvement, recording a -1.57% change, indicating that average food prices fell in September compared to the previous month.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending September 2025 was 24.06%, which is 13.47 percentage points lower than the 37.53% recorded in September 2024.
Core inflation
The core inflation rate, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 19.53% in September 2025 on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 7.9 percentage points from 27.43% recorded in September 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.42% in September 2025, slightly lower by 0.01 percentage points compared to 1.43% recorded in August 2025.
The average twelve-month annual core inflation rate for the period ending September 2025 was 22.39%, 3.25 percentage points lower than the 25.64% recorded in September 2024.
NBS figures confirm experts’ projection
Earlier, experts told Nairametrics that Nigeria’s inflation rate was expected to continue its downward trend in September 2025.
According to them, the overall outlook suggests a mild but steady slowdown in consumer prices, an indication of a potential turning point in Nigeria’s inflation-easing cycle.
Equities Trader and Business Strategist at Rostrum Investment & Securities Ltd, Jessica Ifada forecasts the inflation rate to be around 20.50% to 21.30% in September 2025.
What you should know
In September, the pump price of petrol remained steady throughout the month, with Dangote Refinery reducing its ex-depot price to N820/litre from N850/litre in August.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to hold the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0% continues to anchor inflation expectations and limit excessive liquidity in the system.
Also, the naira appreciated across both official and parallel markets, averaging N1,498.38/$ in September compared to N1,535.25/$ in August.