Nigeria’s inflation trajectory may be approaching a major turning point with projections indicating a possible return to single-digit levels by January 2026, according to Ayo Teriba, Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates.
Teriba’s outlook is anchored on a combination of easing price pressures, seasonal consumption patterns, and recent macroeconomic adjustments that are beginning to reflect in headline inflation data.
He noted that the final quarter of the year, often characterised by increased consumer spending, can also trigger short-term price moderation in select food and service categories due to improved supply flows and market competition.
Nigeria’s inflation has remained elevated for several years, driven by currency volatility, energy price adjustments, logistics bottlenecks, and food supply disruptions.
However, recent indicators suggest that some of these pressures are gradually stabilising. Exchange-rate reforms, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and tighter monetary conditions are beginning to dampen excess demand, while agricultural harvest cycles are contributing to food price moderation.
Teriba highlighted that seasonal demand patterns associated with year-end activities could temporarily soften inflationary pressures, especially in food markets where supply typically improves during this period.
While these effects may not be permanent, they could provide sufficient momentum for inflation to trend downward into early 2026.
The projection also reflects expectations that fiscal and monetary coordination will remain relatively disciplined in the coming months.
Sustained policy consistency, alongside cautious government spending and controlled liquidity growth, is seen as critical to maintaining the downward inflation path beyond short-term seasonal effects.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Teriba cautioned that inflation sustainability will depend on structural factors, including energy supply stability, transport infrastructure, security conditions affecting food production, and the ability of the naira to maintain relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
If realised, a return to single-digit inflation would mark Nigeria’s lowest inflation level in several years and could significantly improve consumer purchasing power, investor confidence, and overall economic planning.
However, analysts broadly agree that maintaining such levels will require continued reforms and careful macroeconomic management well beyond January 2026.