The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.9 percent, a 0.5 percentage point upward revision from its previous projection.
The Fund attributed the improved outlook to strengthening investor confidence, exchange rate stability, and increased oil output, all of which have contributed to a more favorable macroeconomic environment.
The new forecast, released in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook during the ongoing World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., reflects growing optimism about Nigeria’s reform progress and the resilience of its economy.
The Fund also upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 projection to 4.2 percent, up by 0.9 percentage point, citing stronger fiscal management, improved foreign exchange market liquidity, and sustained momentum in the oil sector.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economic environment has benefited from policy reforms and a rebound in key sectors. The appreciation of the naira since mid-year, coupled with firmer oil prices and improved security around production facilities, has supported stability and investor sentiment.
The Fund noted that financial conditions have strengthened, credit activity has picked up, and investor perception of Nigeria’s reform agenda has improved.
The IMF said that these factors collectively underpin its decision to revise Nigeria’s outlook upward. It emphasized that the country’s fiscal stance remains supportive of growth while ongoing structural adjustments—particularly in the exchange rate regime and energy pricing—have begun yielding positive macroeconomic results.
In a separate update, the Fund also adjusted Nigeria’s 2024 growth estimate to 4.1 percent, up by 0.7 percentage point, following the recent rebasing of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The new GDP base captures a broader range of activities, including previously underreported contributions from the informal and digital sectors, giving a more accurate reflection of the economy’s size and performance.
At the regional level, the IMF highlighted that Sub-Saharan Africa continues to show resilience amid a challenging global environment, supported by ongoing stabilization policies and reform momentum in key economies such as Nigeria and Ethiopia.
It, however, cautioned that several resource-dependent and conflict-affected countries still face significant headwinds from high debt burdens, weak fiscal buffers, and limited access to international financing.