Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, slightly higher than the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product report published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The data shows that although the country continues to experience moderate and uneven recovery, key non-oil sectors helped stabilise overall performance.
The NBS report stated: “Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 3.86 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2024.”
Services Maintain Dominance, Non-Oil Sector Strengthens
Aggregate GDP in real terms rose to N57.03tn, up from N54.85tn in Q3 2024. In nominal terms, output expanded by 18.12 per cent to N113.59tn, compared with N96.16tn in the same quarter of the previous year.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to the economy at 53.02 per cent, followed by agriculture at 31.21 per cent. More vigorous activity in telecommunications, financial services, real estate, trade, and crop production underpinned the expansion.
The non-oil sector grew by 3.91 per cent, outperforming both Q3 2024 (3.79 per cent) and Q2 2025 (3.64 per cent). Agriculture improved markedly, rising 3.79 per cent from 2.55 per cent a year earlier, with crop production accounting for nearly two-thirds of the sector’s nominal value.
Oil Sector Shows Slight Improvement but Remains Volatile
The oil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.84 per cent, up from 5.66 per cent in Q3 2024. Average crude oil production climbed to 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.47 mbpd the previous year, though slightly below the 1.68 mbpd posted in Q2 2025.
Despite its year-on-year improvement, the sector contracted by 5.53 per cent every quarter. Its contribution to real GDP edged up to 3.44 per cent, from 3.38 per cent last year, highlighting its continued vulnerability to production fluctuations.
Mixed Outcomes Across Key Industries
Manufacturing slowed to 1.25 per cent growth, down from 1.74 per cent in Q2 2025, with its share of real GDP falling to 7.62 per cent. Nominal growth in the sector remained weak at 3.45 per cent, significantly lower than the 13.83 per cent recorded a year earlier.
Construction grew by 5.57 per cent, slightly lower than the 6.80 per cent posted in 2024, yet its contribution increased to 3.80 per cent. Trade expanded by 1.98 per cent and accounted for 16.42 per cent of total output.
Information and communication technology continued to outperform most major sectors, posting a real growth rate of 5.78 per cent. Although the ICT sector contracted quarter-on-quarter, it contributed 9.10 per cent to real GDP, up from 8.95 per cent in Q3 2024.
Real estate experienced modest real growth of 3.50 per cent but saw a remarkable 89.34 per cent surge in nominal output. Its real GDP contribution stood at 13.36 per cent.
Financial and insurance services grew strongly at 19.63 per cent in real terms, primarily driven by improved performance among financial institutions. Nominal growth hit 40.55 per cent, although the sector’s share of GDP slipped to 2.65 per cent.
Human health services slowed to 2.89 per cent, education rose slightly by 2.51 per cent, and public administration posted 2.12 per cent growth.
Outlook Remains Positive but Fragile
The NBS noted that Nigeria sustained moderate expansion despite structural constraints, citing sectoral gains in ICT, agriculture, trade, and finance as stabilising factors. However, subdued manufacturing and continued volatility in the oil sector underscore ongoing vulnerabilities.
The Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, said the results reflect improvements in data quality and broader sectoral coverage, aligned with the rebased national accounts.
The release aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s revised projections in October 2025, which upgraded Nigeria’s growth outlook to 3.9 per cent for 2025 and 4.2 per cent for 2026, citing improved oil output, more substantial investor confidence, and a more supportive fiscal stance.
With global and domestic conditions still shifting, analysts say Nigeria’s path to stronger, more inclusive growth will depend on reforms that target productivity, energy stability, investment, and security.