Nigeria is undergoing a period of profound economic reform at a time when global power dynamics, energy markets, and technological shifts are reshaping the international order.
We spoke with Yasmin Kumi, founder of the Africa Foresight Group, who shares her perspective on the challenges and opportunities that will shape the country’s next phases.
Below are the excerpts of the interview:
Nairametrics: Nigeria has embarked on a series of reforms at a moment when global geopolitics and energy dynamics are rapidly evolving. In your view, how well-positioned is the country to leverage these reforms to enhance its regional influence?
Yasmin Kumi: Nigeria has certainly taken steps through its current reforms, but I am not convinced the country is well-positioned to translate them into regional influence. My reservations stem from three concerns. First, the reforms bear an uncomfortable resemblance to the structural adjustment era.
They are heavily weighed towards short- to medium-term economic stabilization, rather than long-term strategic repositioning. Structural adjustment in the past was itself a reaction to global economic shocks, but it failed to anchor Nigeria in a new global order. My concern is that history may repeat itself: the reforms respond to immediate hardship, but they lack a clear vision of how Nigeria will reposition within the shifting architecture of global power.
Second, the agenda is tied to the government’s Renewed Hope Plan, a five-year framework. But repositioning a nation within a changing world system cannot realistically be achieved in five years.
It demands a 20-year horizon, underpinned by unwavering commitment across administrations. Other countries, India in services outsourcing or Costa Rica in ecotourism, demonstrate how long-term strategies can fundamentally reshape a nation’s global standing.
Third, the reforms risk alienating the very citizens whose resilience will ultimately determine Nigeria’s trajectory. Power, after all, resides with the people. Today, the average Nigerian is preoccupied with survival, not national strategy.
What is missing is a compelling narrative: why these sacrifices are necessary, and what “green pastures” lie beyond them. Without that vision, the very kind that platforms like the FT Africa Summit are putting at the centre of debate, reforms will be seen only as hardship, not as a collective journey towards a stronger global role.
Nairametrics: So, you don’t see a connection between the reforms and the average Nigerian?
Yasmin Kumi: There is a connection, but it is not the right kind. Today, the average Nigerian is simply struggling to survive the immediate consequences of these changes, which have created significant economic hardship. What is missing is a unifying story, a vision that says: we are enduring this together because it will lead us to a better future.
People need to know what those “green pastures” look like. And to define that, you need more than a five-year plan; you need a 20-year national vision.
This matters because Nigeria is more than just one country. It is, in many ways, a symbol of Africa itself. Within its borders, you find the continent’s contradictions and its promise: enormous scale, immense resource wealth, dynamic entrepreneurship, but also fragmentation and conflict. Whatever direction Nigeria takes will shape how the world sees Africa.
However, what is missing right now is the canvas; the clear picture of how today’s reforms link to that 20-year aspiration. Without it, citizens experience only the pain of the present, not the purpose of the journey.
Nairametrics: With energy and critical minerals becoming increasingly central to global power dynamics, what unique opportunities does Nigeria have to position itself as a regional leader?
Yasmin Kumi: Nigeria has the opportunities, no question. But what we need are reforms of an entirely different magnitude. Think of India. Two decades ago, it deliberately charted a course to become the global hub for outsourcing. That single long-term decision reshaped its economy, created millions of jobs, and elevated incomes.
Or consider Costa Rica, a tiny nation of just five million people. In the mid-20th century, it dismantled its military and redirected spending into conservation, turning nearly a third of its territory into protected national parks. Today, it is a global pioneer of ecotourism. Nigeria, too, must dare to think at that scale.
The world is transitioning away from carbon. Why shouldn’t Nigeria aspire to become a net exporter of solar energy or a continental hub for electric vehicles? These are not impossible dreams, but they require us to escape the old narrative of the “resource curse,” where natural wealth enriches a few and leaves the nation underdeveloped.
Nairametrics: Considering these dynamics, what role should the private sector play, particularly given your background?
Yasmin Kumi: I often joke that people assume I’m Nigerian, I’m not, but perhaps that reflects how deeply invested I feel in the country. Nigeria is the anchor of Africa. What happens here will shape the continent’s trajectory, which is why I believe so strongly in staying closely engaged.
When it comes to business, I think in continental terms. Nigeria is a large part of that story, but the real challenge is the absence of African business unity. Next month, at a conference we are hosting, set to be opened by the President of Ghana, we will call for just that: a stronger, pan-African coalition of businesses working together.
Why? Because competing globally as a single firm is immensely difficult. Africa has shown flashes of what is possible, but one success story is not enough. Where are the dozens of other giants of industry we should be seeing?
These are the kinds of questions we will also be engaging with at the FT Africa Summit. If homegrown African businesses aligned their commercial ambitions with a shared commitment to strengthening local economies and collaborated instead of working in silos, we would see far more job creation, innovation, and stability in our currencies.
We often talk about the African Union, or about deepening the AfCFTA (African Continental Free Trade Area). However, beyond rhetoric, the real question is: how can African businesses fundamentally rethink collaboration? If they do, they will not just survive, they will define Africa’s role in the global economy.
Nairametrics: At the ground level, how are Nigeria’s current reforms affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and startups? And in your view, how can reforms be structured to avoid stifling innovation?
Yasmin Kumi: To be candid, the reforms as they stand remind me of the structural adjustment era, and those policies never placed SMEs or startups at the centre. Their priority was fiscal stability and strengthening the state’s balance sheet. If that is once again the true objective, then we should be transparent about it, rather than suggesting that the reforms are designed to nurture smaller businesses.
The reality is that the climate for SMEs and startups has become more challenging. It is harder to operate, and we have already seen large technology companies exiting Nigeria because they find the environment unworkable. If firms of that scale cannot adapt, it is unsurprising that smaller players are struggling.
Yet, even in adversity, opportunity exists. Nigerian startups have developed some of the most innovative and resilient business models on the continent. The challenge is that many of them remain anchored in Nigeria because the domestic market is so vast and attractive. But perhaps this moment is the catalyst for change.
Expanding into smaller neighboring markets, which may initially seem less appealing, could diversify revenue streams, open access to hard-currency income, and ultimately strengthen resilience.
In other words, while the current reforms create headwinds, they may also push Nigerian startups to think beyond their home market and, in doing so, unlock continental opportunities that will define the next stage of their growth.
Nairametrics: Dangote Industries has recently expanded into food exports, including shipments to the United States. How significant is this development for Nigeria’s global economic positioning?
Yasmin Kumi: It is a landmark achievement not just for Dangote, but for Nigeria’s entrepreneurial story. It demonstrates that Nigerian businesses can not only dominate domestic markets but also compete credibly on international platforms. That kind of visibility matters in shifting global perceptions of Nigeria’s economic potential.
But the broader question remains: how do we multiply this success? Dangote is an extraordinary case study, but he cannot stand alone. For Nigeria to reposition itself globally, we need dozens more stories of these scale companies able to break into international markets, build globally competitive brands, and prove that Africa’s business champions can hold their own on the world stage.
Nairametrics: Nigeria has announced ambitious renewable energy and net-zero commitments. Yet many businesses, especially SMEs, still struggle with basic energy access. How can reforms be designed to deliver tangible benefits for local producers and investors?
Yasmin Kumi: It comes back to the question of long-term vision. A five-year plan is simply inadequate for a problem of this scale. Nigeria’s chronic electricity deficit has crippled the economy for decades, holding back not only business growth but also education, healthcare, and broader national development. The damage is systemic, and short-term fixes will not resolve it. What is needed is a bold, multi-decade strategy with clear targets and continuity.
For me, the most striking opportunity lies in solar power. Consider Egypt, which is now exporting solar energy to Southern Europe via an undersea cable. That is the kind of ambition Africa should be known for, turning abundant sunshine into a competitive export industry. Nigeria could lead that movement.
Unfortunately, the conversation is too often reduced to cost. “Solar is too expensive; installation is prohibitive.” But why aren’t we building national partnerships with countries that already have research and development expertise, so that within ten years, we can drive costs down for an entire nation? That is how solar becomes transformative.
Because right now, clean energy is treated as a “nice-to-have”, some panels on a factory roof or a bank branch, mainly for appearances. The only way it will truly make sense for Nigeria is if clean energy becomes commercially viable, more profitable than the alternatives.
Nairametrics: The Mission 300 initiative, backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, aims to electrify 300 million Africans by 2030. How realistic is this ambition?
Yasmin Kumi: I’m familiar with Mission 300, and while its intent is commendable, the challenge is whether it addresses the economics in a way that is investable and scalable. If it simply funds a handful of off-grid projects, without generating sustainable returns that attract commercial capital, then it will never reach 300 million people.
Electrification at scale requires more than donor funding. It demands viable business models, proven technologies, and the ability to attract private investment. Without that, we are simply recycling the same problem. What I believe is needed is patient, long-term R&D to make solar power and other renewable solutions commercially viable at a national level. That is how Nigeria, and Africa more broadly, can close the gap. But this takes time, not five-year cycles.
Nairametrics: The target year is 2030.
Yasmin Kumi: Exactly! 2030 is practically tomorrow. We fall into the trap of setting short-term goals that are politically appealing but economically unrealistic. If such a plan had been launched twenty years ago with consistency across administrations, the results would look very different today. But these five-year projects, disconnected from a long-term vision, rarely deliver meaningful transformation.
Nairametrics: Critics argue that long-term planning often clashes with political cycles. A new administration typically introduces its own agenda, and citizens demand quick results. Why should they wait for 20 years when progress could, in theory, be achieved sooner?
Yasmin Kumi: The question to ask is simple: has the short-term approach ever truly worked? The most successful national development stories, whether in China, South Korea, or India, were anchored in long-term horizons. Transformation takes decades, not electoral terms.
The difference lies in the narrative. People will endure hardship if they believe it is part of a larger journey that benefits their children and future generations. But that requires clarity: a roadmap from point A to point B that citizens can understand and trust. Without that, reforms are just pain without purpose.
Nairametrics: But Nigeria had 10- and 20-year National Development Plans in the 1960s. Many looked ambitious on paper, yet people argue they didn’t really work.
Yasmin Kumi: The truth is that the context made it almost impossible for them to succeed. I have personally written off the 1960s through the 1980s as a viable development era for Africa. Those were decades when the Cold War was being fought on African soil. The continent became a theatre where East and West clashed for influence. How can you implement a stable, long-term plan when geopolitical powers are actively working against you?
Nigeria is a case in point. Asaba, where the Biafra war came to an end, stands as a reminder of the instability of that era: an environment in which meaningful development could not take root.
In my view, Africa only truly began to have the chance to chart its own course from the 1990s onwards. This brings us to today, where we are once again witnessing global power shifts. My greatest concern is that history could repeat itself: a new, multipolar cold war in which Africa becomes the battlefield. If that happens, both short- and long-term reforms risk being derailed, just as they were decades ago.
The only way to prevent this is for Africa to be proactive: to take ownership of its transformation and articulate a clear, strategic position that benefits not only Africa but the wider world. This is why we are advocating for something akin to a Marshall Plan for African businesses. Job creation on the continent is not just in Africa’s interest; it is in the world’s interest.
But we cannot talk about such ambitions in five-year increments. They require a bold, generational vision. I understand the scepticism; long-term plans failed in the past. But that was because the timing and the conditions were wrong. Today may offer a better moment, but the plans themselves still need to be designed at the right scale. It is about aligning the equation: a big plan, at the right time.
Nairametrics: Some argue that Africa is still caught in Cold War-style rivalries, from Ukraine to the Sahel and that long-term plans are unrealistic. Shouldn’t immediate economic concerns take precedence?
Yasmin Kumi: I don’t deny that external interventions persist. Even if the scale diminished in the 1990s and early 2000s, it never disappeared entirely, and yes, geopolitical tensions are rising again. But this is precisely why short-termism is so dangerous. If we only react to immediate shocks, we become hostage to global dynamics we neither control nor fully anticipate.
That is why I insist on long-term planning. And to be clear, long-term does not exclude short-term action; the two must work together. A five-year plan can still exist, but it should be framed as one chapter in a 20-year vision. That way, today’s decisions are guided by where the nation wants to be two decades from now, rather than by temporary pressures.
What Nigeria must answer is: what will we be a global champion of? Costa Rica reinvented itself through ecotourism. India built a global reputation through outsourcing. What unique contribution can Nigeria and Africa offer the world that no one else has yet achieved? That is the vision we need, and short-term fixes alone will never deliver it.
Nairametrics: The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission has announced plans to commercialize solar power through a net metering scheme, allowing individuals to sell excess power back to the grid. How transformative could this be for Nigeria’s energy sector and its entrepreneurs?
Yasmin Kumi: It is an important step forward. Recognizing solar power as a commercially tradable resource and structuring it in a way that directly benefits SMEs has enormous potential. It could encourage broader adoption and create new opportunities for entrepreneurs.
But the bigger question is whether Nigeria should continue to see electrification primarily through the lens of the national grid. The scale of infrastructure required to build a fully functional grid for a country of Nigeria’s size is daunting. Perhaps it is time to think differently.
I often reflect on Ghana’s “Operation Feed Yourself” policy under Jerry Rawlings. While deeply controversial, it dramatically increased food production by forcing communities to become self-reliant. I wonder whether a similar philosophy could work in energy: a more communal, decentralized model. Imagine local biomass conversion plants powering entire communities, supplemented by household solar units. That kind of bottom-up approach could be far more resilient than an overburdened grid struggling to serve everyone at once.
Ultimately, development always confronts this question: should it be top-down or bottom-up? For Nigeria, I suspect the answer may lie in a combination, but I remain convinced that community-driven, decentralized initiatives deserve far more attention than they currently receive
Nairametrics: Finally, what role do you see your organisation playing in helping businesses tap into opportunities created by Nigeria’s energy transition?
Yasmin Kumi: At Africa Foresight Group, we are working with the Nigerian Exchange Group to support the net-zero transition of businesses not only in energy but across all sectors. Every business, regardless of size or industry, is an energy consumer. The question is how to help them transition in a way that strengthens, rather than burdens, their operations.
Quite often, clean energy is framed merely as a compliance issue, another box to tick to qualify for financing. That framing is inadequate. What we are pushing for is a shift in perspective: to see the energy transition as a business case. Nigerian entrepreneurs are commercially astute; they know their numbers, their risks, and the pressures of inflation. For them, sustainability must make economic sense.
This is where our work comes in: showing that clean energy can build resilience, open new markets, and unlock financing. Think of exporters producing net-zero-compliant goods for health-conscious consumers willing to pay a premium, or manufacturers that are reducing costs and emissions by substituting imports with local production. These opportunities come with a direct commercial impact.
Our role is to make that case clear, and this is a theme I look forward to exploring further at the FT Africa Summit 2025. If Nigerian businesses embrace the energy transition not as a burden but as a strategic advantage, they will not only future-proof themselves, but they will also lead Africa’s charge into the global clean economy.