NATO, the 76-year-old transatlantic alliance, is facing its most serious internal crisis in decades as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran exacerbates longstanding tensions between Washington and European allies. Analysts and diplomats warn the alliance could emerge weaker than at any point since its founding.
The crisis stems partly from U.S. President Donald Trump’s frustration that European countries have declined to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping after the conflict escalated in late February. In recent remarks, Trump suggested he is considering withdrawing from NATO and questioned the bloc’s willingness to support European allies in a potential conflict.
“Wouldn’t you if you were me?” Trump told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. While he criticized European countries, he stopped short of directly condemning NATO, but his rhetoric has sparked concerns that U.S. military support for Europe may no longer be guaranteed.
Experts say the alliance’s mutual defense principle is now under strain. “This is the worst place NATO has been since it was founded,” said Max Bergmann, former State Department official and director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. European officials increasingly consider the prospect of defending themselves without U.S. support.
Former French armed forces chief General Francois Lecointre added: “NATO remains necessary, but we must be capable of thinking of NATO without the Americans. Whether it should even continue to be called NATO is a valid question.”
Trump and his administration have expressed frustration over what they perceive as NATO’s reluctance to assist the U.S., particularly regarding operations in the Strait of Hormuz. European officials counter that no formal requests for military assets have been made and highlight inconsistent U.S. messaging.
The tension comes amid a series of provocative actions by the U.S., including threats to acquire Greenland from Denmark and measures seen in Europe as favorable to Russia, which NATO identifies as its primary security threat. Recent diplomatic exchanges, such as a tense discussion between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas at a G7 meeting, underscore the fraying transatlantic relationship.
While Trump legally cannot withdraw from NATO without Senate approval, analysts warn that a refusal to deploy U.S. forces in defense of European allies could destabilize the alliance even without formal withdrawal.
Despite the turbulence, some diplomats view Trump’s rhetoric as a temporary display, noting that past positions have shifted. Nonetheless, analysts say NATO’s cohesion and the broader transatlantic security framework may never fully return to their pre-war status.
Julianne Smith, U.S. ambassador to NATO under President Joe Biden, summarized the situation: “I don’t think it means the end of the transatlantic relationship, but we’re on the cusp of something that’s going to have a different look and feel to it.”