The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that about 10.4 million people in West and Central Africa could be pushed into acute food insecurity if the ongoing Middle East conflict persists.
The warning was issued on March 17, 2026, in a report published on the WFP’s website, highlighting the growing global consequences of the crisis.
The agency noted that, globally, as many as 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, adding to the 318 million people already facing hunger worldwide.
The WFP said the conflict, driven by tensions involving Iran and a combined force of Israel and the United States, could trigger a global food crisis due to its impact on energy markets, which are closely linked to food prices.
The agency further warned that African countries, particularly those dependent on food and fuel imports, would be among the hardest hit.
According to the WFP, the projections were calculated by modelling the impact of sustained high oil prices—around $100 per barrel—on global food systems. Analysts assessed the number of people unable to afford a minimum energy-sufficient diet (2,100 kcal per day), factoring in rising transportation and food costs, as well as each country’s dependence on imported food and energy.
The crisis stems from the ongoing war involving Iran and a combined force of Israel and the United States, which began on February 28 and has since disrupted global energy supply chains. Key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, have faced significant disruptions, driving up oil prices and, in turn, increasing fuel costs in countries such as Nigeria.
Beyond West and Central Africa, the WFP projects that:
In Nigeria, the warning comes at a time when many households are already grappling with economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu, including the removal of fuel subsidy in 2023, which significantly increased the cost of living.
However, as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global energy and food systems, concerns remain about how vulnerable populations—particularly in import-dependent economies like Nigeria—will cope with rising prices and deepening food insecurity in the months ahead.