The cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice for a family of five in Nigeria has increased to N30,435, highlighting how a distant geopolitical conflict is affecting household survival and forcing families to reconsider what and how they eat.
The latest SBM Intelligence Jollof Index, titled ‘From Hormuz To The Pot,’ revealed a 19.4 percent increase to N25,486 between October 2025 and March 2026, reflecting more than 40 percent of the national minimum wage.
At the heart of the surge is a global trigger with local consequences. Following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East in late February, crude oil prices spiked sharply, pushing domestic petrol prices above N1,300 per litre and diesel beyond N1,500. The result has been a rapid pass-through into transport costs, food prices, and overall inflation.
“The Strait of Hormuz might as well lie at the end of every Nigerian street,” SBM Intelligence noted, describing how global energy disruptions now translate almost instantly into local market prices.
Read also: Nigerians spend 40% of minimum wage to cook a pot of jollof rice
Fuel, transport, and the inflation spiral
Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined fuel has amplified the shock. As pump prices rose, the cost of moving goods surged, with transport fares doubling or tripling in some corridors. The cost of hauling food items across regions climbed by more than 50 percent in key routes.
Moving a tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos now costs up to N70,000, up from N45,000. Every ingredient in the jollof basket — rice, oil, pepper, and proteins—becomes more expensive to transport, store, and sell.
This has fed directly into inflation. Headline inflation rose to 15.38 percent in March, while month-on-month inflation more than doubled to 4.18 percent. Rural areas, heavily dependent on road transport, recorded the sharpest increases
“Every single ingredient in the jollof basket became more expensive to move, store, and sell,” the report stated, highlighting the central role of logistics in the current food crisis.
Behind the data are households recalibrating daily life. In Lagos, a mother described how rising fuel costs have reshaped everything from her shopping habits to her family’s diet.
“I don’t bother with meat anymore,” she said. “The protein I use now is smoked dry fish. Meat is too expensive.”
She now buys food in small quantities to avoid transport costs and has switched from cooking gas to charcoal for main meals.
A nation divided by food costs
The surge in jollof costs varies sharply across states, reflecting differences in logistics, infrastructure and exposure to supply shocks.
In the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja remains the most expensive location. The cost of a pot of jollof in Wuse II rose to N36,750 in March, driven by heavy reliance on food transported over long and insecure road corridors.
“For a city that produces almost none of its own food, every naira added to fuel is a naira added to food prices,” the report noted.
Lagos recorded the sharpest monthly increase, with prices jumping by over 23 percent in March alone. As Nigeria’s primary import hub, the city is highly exposed to global oil price movements and port-related costs.
“The near doubling of pump prices was the fastest and most visible pass-through of a global event into Nigerian pockets in recent memory,” SBM Intelligence said.
In the South-South, Port Harcourt saw the steepest six-month increase at 55.1 percent to N31,650, reflecting the high cost of diesel-powered storage and distribution systems. Cold-room operators reported that rising energy costs have wiped out margins.
Northern markets tell a different story. In Kano, prices rose by 53.8 percent to N29,670 in March from N19,020 in October 2025, but analysts say this reflects demand compression rather than relief.
In the Southeast, markets such as Awka and Onitsha recorded the only month-on-month declines in March 2026, each falling by 2.0 percent to N24,250, but these remain significantly higher than six months ago, with traders warning of fragile stability.
The Southeast displayed the lowest awareness of the Iran war in our survey, at 54 percent. Fear of business harm was also the lowest, at 44 percent.
SBM disclosed that a wholesale food trader in Onitsha said she had stopped restocking entirely. “I am selling what I have. When it finishes, I will close the shop for a while. There is no point buying at today’s prices because nobody will buy from me at tomorrow’s prices.” This is inventory collapse in slow motion.
Nigeria vs Ghana: a widening gap
Nigeria’s food inflation is accelerating in real terms, with the cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice rising sharply when measured in dollars, even as the naira shows signs of stabilising.
Data from the SBM Jollof Index shows that a pot of jollof, which cost $14.49 in March 2023, now requires $21.93, an increase of more than 50 percent in three years. The index, benchmarked at 100 in 2023, dropped briefly to 76.0 in 2024 due to currency devaluation but has since surged to 151.3 in March 2026, its highest level on record.
Read also: Cost of making jollof rice surges 7-fold in nine years
The earlier decline, SBM says, was not a sign of easing prices but a “currency illusion,” as the weakening naira masked rising domestic food costs. Since then, increases in the prices of rice, vegetable oil, and protein have outpaced exchange rate movements, reinforcing a sustained upward trend in real food costs.
Ghana presents a contrasting picture. While the dollar cost of jollof initially rose from $25.88 in March 2023 to $31.25 in 2024, it has since moderated, falling to $21.68 before stabilising at $98.30 on the index by March 2026, slightly below its 2023 baseline.