Asylum applications to the European Union declined by nearly 20 percent in 2025, according to the bloc’s asylum agency, though officials warned that escalating instability in Iran could reverse the downward trend and trigger refugee movements of “unprecedented magnitude.”
The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) said in its latest report that applications across EU member states fell to about 822,000 in 2025 — a 19 percent drop compared to the previous year. The decline followed an 11 percent reduction recorded in 2024.
However, the agency cautioned that renewed turmoil in Iran, particularly amid heightened regional tensions and conflict, could dramatically alter migration patterns. With Iran’s population estimated at roughly 90 million, the EUAA said that even partial destabilisation could produce large-scale displacement.
“Displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades,” the agency noted, while describing the scenario as highly speculative.
EU officials reportedly discussed the potential implications during an extraordinary meeting of foreign ministers, and the issue is expected to feature prominently on the agenda when the bloc’s interior ministers meet in Brussels later this week.
The European Commission said it is strengthening monitoring efforts and enhancing cooperation with United Nations agencies and partner countries to prepare for possible spillover effects from the crisis.
The EUAA acknowledged that it is unable to predict the direct impact of ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, stressing that the situation remains fluid. It described Iran as a “potential flashpoint” following mass protests and previous strikes targeting its nuclear infrastructure.
While Iranian nationals submitted about 8,000 asylum applications in the EU plus Switzerland and Norway in 2025 — ranking 31st among applicant groups — Afghan nationals filed the highest number of claims at 117,000, marking a 33 percent increase. Venezuelans followed with 91,000 applications.
The agency said the overall decline in asylum requests was largely driven by fewer applications from Syrians, Bangladeshis and Turks, but warned that geopolitical developments could quickly reshape migration dynamics across Europe.