Ahead of the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship primary on Thursday, the battle for the 2027 governorship ticket has thrown Kwara State into the national spotlight after the state emerged with the highest number of governorship aspirants, a development political observers say reflects growing power calculations, regional anxieties and widening discontent within the state’s political structure.
From the document obtained from the ruling party on Tuesday, the list of aspirants who purchased expression of interest and nomination forms, Kwara recorded 16 governorship contenders — the highest figure among 28 states listed by the APC.
According to the document, a total of 101 governorship aspirants from 28 states purchased the nomination forms under the APC platform.
The unusually large number of aspirants has already triggered intense political debates across the state, especially over which senatorial district should produce the next governor after the tenure of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq.
Many political stakeholders are now insisting that the APC may be taking a dangerous electoral risk if it ignores the Kwara Central Senatorial District in its succession arrangement ahead of 2027.
The argument, according to insiders within the ruling party, is anchored not only on electoral arithmetic but also on the worsening insecurity confronting parts of Kwara North and Kwara South in recent years.
Political analysts argue that the security challenges affecting several communities in the northern axis bordering Niger and Kogi States, as well as pockets of instability in parts of the southern flank, have increased pressure on the party to look inward towards the central district, which is widely regarded as the state’s most politically stable and electorally dominant bloc.
Kwara Central, which comprises major urban voting centres including Ilorin West, Ilorin East, Ilorin South and Asa, is believed to account for nearly 50 per cent of the state’s voting strength, making it the decisive battleground in any governorship election.
Observers say the district’s numerical advantage and strategic political influence may ultimately shape the APC’s final decision despite the growing ambitions from other zones.
Within the ruling party, there are increasing concerns that failure to carefully manage the succession process could deepen internal cracks and weaken the APC’s dominance in the state.
The sheer number of governorship aspirants from Kwara, analysts say, also appears to reflect broader dissatisfaction with governance under the present administration.
According to political watchers, when a ruling party produces an unusually crowded governorship field, it often signals that several interest groups perceive the political environment as vulnerable or open for realignment.
The list released by the APC showed that among the 16 aspirants in Kwara are prominent political figures, technocrats and former office holders seeking to position themselves for the party’s ticket.
Among those listed are Olufemi Kolawole Sanni, Dr. Senator Ibrahim Yahaya Oloriegbe, Mohammed Omar Bio, Muhammed Dele Belgore (SAN), Dr. Alabi Oluwatoyin Tajudeen, Ambassador Yahaya Abdulfatai, Yakubu Danladi Salihu and Tajudeen Audu Abdulkadir.
Others are Senator Salihu Mustapha, Azeez Salaro Muideen, Bashir Omolaya Bolarinwa, Ahmad Ibrahim Mahmoud, Yetunde Musiliant Adebowale Bello, Mahalia Aishatu Ahman Pategi, Professor Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman and Professor Olawale Adeniyi Rafiu Sulaiman.
Behind Kwara on the national chart is Oyo State with 11 governorship aspirants under the APC platform.
The Oyo race features names such as Dr. Ayobami Wasu Adesina, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, Engr. Oyedele Hakeem Alao Oyebode, Barrister Akeem Adedeji Agbaje, Dr. Adewale Kolapo Kareem and several others.
Political analysts say the high number in Oyo may not be unconnected with the determination of the APC to reclaim the state from the opposition amid expectations that the contest will be fiercely competitive.
Adamawa State came third with 10 governorship aspirants.
The development reflects the intense political interest in the North-East state ahead of the next electoral cycle, with several established politicians already jostling for influence within the ruling party.
Bauchi State followed with eight aspirants, while Nasarawa State and Yobe State recorded seven aspirants each.
The document further showed that several states, including Akwa Ibom State, Borno State, Cross River State, Delta State, Ebonyi State, Enugu State, Jigawa State, Kaduna State, Kano State, Katsina State, Kebbi State, Niger State, Sokoto State and Zamfara State recorded only one aspirant each, suggesting either stronger internal consensus or tighter political control within those state chapters of the APC.
But despite the national spread, political attention appears firmly fixed on Kwara, where the combination of insecurity concerns, zoning calculations, electoral strength and internal dissatisfaction has transformed the APC succession race into one of the most closely watched political contests ahead of 2027.
For many within the ruling party, the central question is no longer whether the APC will retain power in Kwara, but whether the party can navigate its internal contradictions and produce a candidate capable of uniting the state’s competing interests before the opposition begins to exploit the cracks.