The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected that Africa’s rice market will grow from an estimated $24 billion in 2024 to $29.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4 per cent.
This is according to the Afreximbank Commodity Bulletin Number 1 – 2025.
The bank noted that despite encouraging improvements in local rice production, the continent continues to rely heavily on imports to satisfy its fast-rising consumption needs.
According to Afreximbank, Africa’s rice production has shown steady progress in recent years, with available supply reaching approximately 39.8 million tonnes in 2022, compared to 36.9 million tonnes in 2018. However, this growth has not been sufficient to meet the rapidly expanding demand fueled by population growth and urbanisation.
“In 2024, Africa’s rice market was valued at US$24 billion, with projections to reach US$29.2 billion by 2030, reflecting a 4 per cent compound annual growth rate,” the report stated.
The report identified persistent challenges hampering self-sufficiency in rice production across the continent, including inadequate rural infrastructure, limited access to quality seeds and mechanisation, and vulnerability to climate change impacts such as droughts and flooding.
These factors, the report stated, have constrained productivity and reduced competitiveness relative to imported rice.
Nigeria, Mali, and Guinea are leading the trend to reverse rice importation
According to the report, Nigeria, Mali, and Guinea lead the continent’s rice importation, which are making efforts to reverse the trend.
Efforts, according to the report, include increased investment in irrigation systems, research into high-yield seed varieties, and adoption of improved farming techniques. In Nigeria, government-backed initiatives such as the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme and private-sector investments in integrated rice mills have boosted local output, though not yet enough to meet total demand.
Despite these efforts, Africa remains a net importer of rice, with imports accounting for about 40 per cent of total consumption. The continent continues to depend on major exporters such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam to fill supply gaps, leaving it exposed to global price shocks and supply chain disruptions.
Afreximbank noted that the rising demand for rice is supported by Africa’s fast-growing urban population and changing dietary habits that favor convenient, easy-to-cook staple foods.
The bank also highlighted that regional integration efforts under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could significantly boost intra-African trade in paddy rice and processed products by reducing transportation costs and facilitating cross-border agricultural cooperation.
What this means
Afreximbank’s projection that Africa’s rice market will reach $29.2 billion by 2030 carries several critical implications for the continent’s food security, trade policy, and agricultural investment landscape.
With the rice market expected to expand by over $5 billion in the coming years, there is a clear opportunity for private investors, agritech firms, and development finance institutions to enter the sector.