A new initiative by the GSMA and the Handset Affordability Coalition to introduce $40 4G smartphones across Africa is expected to accelerate digital inclusion, but emerging data suggests that network infrastructure, particularly in Nigeria, may not be fully prepared to support the anticipated surge in demand.
The initiative, unveiled at the Mobile World Congress 2026 in Lyon, France, aims to connect millions of underserved users.
However, performance data released by nPerf for 2025 highlights structural limitations in mobile network capacity across key African markets, including Nigeria, Congo and Ethiopia.
Nigeria recorded an average download speed of 9.97 Mbps, placing it behind Congo’s 12.8 Mbps and ahead of Ethiopia’s 6.73 Mbps. While these figures reflect moderate connectivity, they remain significantly below global benchmarks and raise concerns about the quality of user experience as device penetration increases.
From a usage perspective, Nigeria delivered the strongest streaming performance among the three countries, with a streaming index of 62.28 percent, suggesting relatively stable video playback.
However, the country underperformed in web browsing, recording a low index of 27.36 percent, indicating slower access to websites, digital services and e-commerce platforms.
The data suggests that while entertainment-based usage may remain functional, productivity-driven activities such as online transactions, government services and business operations could face limitations under current network conditions.
Comparatively, Congo demonstrated stronger latency performance at 123 milliseconds but recorded weaker streaming capability at 41.88 percent.
Ethiopia showed the most constrained network performance, with latency reaching 258 milliseconds, significantly impacting real-time communications such as video calls.
Analysts note that the introduction of ultra-low-cost smartphones without corresponding infrastructure upgrades could lead to increased network congestion.
Higher user density typically places pressure on bandwidth, reducing overall service quality if capacity expansion does not keep pace with adoption.
However, the initiative could also act as a catalyst for investment. Historically, rising demand for connectivity has driven telecom operators to expand infrastructure, improve spectrum efficiency and deploy advanced technologies.
For Nigeria, the priority identified by the data is improving browsing performance, which remains a critical component of digital participation, particularly in areas such as financial services, e-government and online commerce.
The broader implication is that device affordability alone may not guarantee meaningful digital inclusion. Without parallel investments in network quality, the expected benefits of increased smartphone penetration could be limited.
As the $40 smartphone initiative gains traction, the ability of telecom operators to scale infrastructure, optimise network performance and manage user growth will determine whether the programme delivers sustainable impact or exacerbates existing connectivity challenges.