President Bola Tinubu’s efforts to restore stability in Nigeria have suffered a major blow as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) escalated its campaign in the northeastern region, launching coordinated assaults on more than 20 military bases since the beginning of 2025.
According to data released by Seerist, a risk intelligence firm, the month of May alone recorded 45 verified insurgency-related incidents—the highest in five years—largely attributed to ISWAP activities in Borno State and surrounding areas.
Analysts say the scale and precision of the attacks signal a strategic shift, with the group demonstrating renewed tactical coordination and battlefield sophistication.
Military intelligence indicates that the group, an affiliate of the Islamic State formed in 2016, has redirected its focus back to the northeast after unsuccessful expansion attempts into central Nigeria.
In one of the most notable raids, ISWAP militants overran the Nigerian Army’s super camp in New Marte on May 11, stealing at least 45 military vehicles and large quantities of ammunition.
Security experts say the attacks point to long-term planning and access to advanced military-grade equipment, including night-vision gear and retrofitted commercial drones.
“The recent strikes required high levels of coordination and planning, suggesting they were organized over a long period,” said Mikolaj Judson, Lagos-based analyst at Control Risks.
Vincent Foucher, a fellow at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, revealed that ISWAP has benefited from captured equipment obtained during raids on both Nigerian and Cameroonian forces.
He noted the group is also likely receiving strategic guidance from foreign operatives and sourcing arms across regional supply chains.
The Nigerian military, stretched thin by engagements against separatists, pirates, bandits, and oil infrastructure sabotage, has primarily relied on airstrikes to contain the militants.
A May 30 statement from the Nigerian Army said over 60 insurgents, including a senior commander, were neutralized in a recent counter-offensive in Borno State.
Despite this, the persistence and adaptability of ISWAP are causing concern. “Their ability to adjust to external conditions and refine tactics is evident in their use of drones and targeted strikes on critical supply routes,” Judson added.
The resurgence of insurgent activities is eroding gains made in past years through the establishment of fortified military super camps. These camps, introduced in 2019 to consolidate military strength and deter attacks, have now become prime targets. ISWAP has reportedly attacked more than 20 of these installations in the first five months of the year alone.
Babagana Zulum, governor of Borno State, expressed concern that recent gains in the fight against insurgency are being reversed.
He warned that ISWAP is positioning itself to reclaim the level of territorial control once held by Boko Haram, which dominated vast stretches of northeastern Nigeria a decade ago.
“The progress of the last several years is at risk. We must reassess our security strategy and enhance coordination at both the federal and regional levels,” Zulum said in a statement.
The broader regional dynamics are compounding the crisis. Nigeria’s condemnation of the 2023 coup in Niger and subsequent diplomatic fallout have disrupted security cooperation.
In March 2025, Niger’s military government withdrew from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), reducing intelligence sharing and weakening joint border patrols. Chad has also threatened to exit the regional force, which could further fragment security efforts in the Lake Chad Basin.
General Michael Langley, commander of the U.S. Africa Command, described the situation as “deeply concerning,” citing a spike in extremist violence across Nigeria and the broader Sahel region.
“Extremist groups are growing more aggressive. The tactical maturity of groups like ISWAP underscores the need for increased regional and international coordination,” he told reporters in Nairobi on May 27.
The situation also places political pressure on President Tinubu, who came into office in May 2023 with a clear commitment to tackling Nigeria’s longstanding security challenges.
The latest wave of violence not only undermines that pledge but also risks eroding public confidence amid growing discontent over inflation and economic reforms that have increased the cost of living.
With the security landscape rapidly evolving, experts are calling for a multi-pronged response that addresses military capability gaps, improves regional cooperation and disrupts the financial and logistical networks supporting ISWAP.
As of the time of this report, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters has not issued additional comments beyond previously released statements.
However, the growing frequency, scale, and sophistication of ISWAP’s operations suggest a prolonged and intensifying security challenge for the Tinubu administration.
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