The OPEC+ alliance’s accelerated move to boost oil-production quotas has yet to yield meaningful increases in actual output, according to a recent market note by Morgan Stanley.
Despite raising quotas by approximately 1 million barrels per day between March and June, production levels across core member states remain largely unchanged with Saudi Arabia in particular showing little ramp-up in supply.
“Notwithstanding the around 1 million-barrel-a-day increase in production quotas between March and June, an actual increase in production is hard to detect,” said Morgan Stanley analysts led by Martijn Rats in a June 9 research note. “Notably, it does not appear that production in Saudi Arabia has ramped up significantly.”
OPEC+ has in recent months relaxed supply constraints at a faster-than-anticipated pace.
The strategic decision is aimed at reclaiming lost market share and reinforcing internal compliance amid mounting pressure from non-OPEC producers and demand uncertainty due to global trade tensions.
The bank’s findings are based on a comprehensive review of global oil indicators, including refinery throughput, crude cargo exports, pipeline flow data and inventory levels.
Morgan Stanley also referenced production estimates from six different data providers to validate its assessment.
The research suggests that while quotas have increased on paper, logistical, technical and geopolitical limitations have hindered member nations from capitalizing on the expanded ceilings.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley still expects some level of production growth. Supply from core OPEC+ members is projected to increase by approximately 420,000 barrels per day between June and September with roughly half of that growth anticipated from Saudi Arabia.
However, the firm warned that this would do little to offset broader market softness.
“Even without an OPEC production increase, those two assumptions alone already produce a softer outlook for the oil market, especially after the current period of seasonal summer-strength,” the analysts noted.
The bank maintained its bearish stance on crude prices, forecasting Brent crude to average $57.50 per barrel in the second half of 2025.
This represents a significant decline from recent highs, with the global benchmark last trading at $66.29 a barrel — down more than 11% year-to-date.
Additional supply pressures are also emerging from outside the OPEC+ bloc. Morgan Stanley estimates that non-OPEC producers will add roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in new supply this year. By contrast, global demand is expected to grow by only 800,000 barrels per day, reinforcing the likelihood of a persistent supply surplus.
The mismatch between production quotas and realized output also underscores deeper structural issues within OPEC+. Some members continue to struggle with aging infrastructure, underinvestment, and political instability, while others face technical bottlenecks or limited spare capacity.
Meanwhile, the alliance’s effort to enforce quota compliance has led to internal frictions, with several producers accused of exceeding their limits to capitalize on market pricing. The latest quota adjustments, while aimed at restoring balance, appear to be delivering diminishing returns.
OPEC+ is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting later this quarter, where members are expected to evaluate quota performance and reassess their production strategy.
The outcome will be closely watched by market participants seeking clarity on future supply dynamics amid continued volatility in global energy markets.
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