Oil prices advanced on Monday as OPEC+ members reaffirmed their decision to maintain output levels while the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended exports following a major drone attack.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark for Nigerian crude oil, rose by $1.01 or 1.62% to $63.39 per barrel at 05:01 a.m. while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1, or 1.71% to $59.55.
OPEC+ had agreed to pause production increases in early November to avoid a potential supply glut.
After its meeting on Sunday, the alliance said it “reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments.”
The statement aligned with market expectations and helped support sentiment.
LSEG Senior Analyst Anh Pham said the market responded positively as the decision eased concerns of oversupply.
“For some time, the narrative has centered on an oil glut, so OPEC+’s decision to maintain its production target provided some relief and helped stabilize expectations for supply growth in the coming months,” she noted.
Beyond OPEC+ policy, geopolitical developments added upward pressure.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which includes shareholders from Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States—halted operations after a mooring at its Russian Black Sea terminal was damaged by a Ukrainian drone. The pipeline system transports more than 1% of global oil supply.
The suspension underscores ongoing risks to energy infrastructure amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ukraine’s military reported over the weekend that it struck a Russian oil refinery and the Beriev aviation plant in the Rostov region, escalating supply-side uncertainties in Europe.
The attacks also reduced confidence in a near-term Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, which previously contributed to a bearish outlook based on expectations of increased Russian oil exports.
Tensions between the United States and Venezuela further heightened market sensitivity. U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that “the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered closed, prompting renewed uncertainty about oil flows from the South American producer.
Trump later clarified that his comments should not be interpreted as signalling imminent military action, though he did not provide additional details following his discussions with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
ING analysts noted in a client briefing that “supply risks increase following additional Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and an escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela,” highlighting the broader geopolitical backdrop currently driving oil market volatility.
With OPEC+ maintaining production discipline and multiple geopolitical disruptions converging, near-term supply risks are expected to remain elevated, supporting price stability despite broader concerns about excess global output.